Informed Speculation

You know, if you read this blog regularly, that I have been no fan of Iraq’s Prime Minister, finding him to be far too beholden to the extremist cleric (and Iranian stooge) al-Sadr.  Well, if al-Maliki follows through on this, all will quickly be forgiven:

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said he will reshuffle his Cabinet within two weeks and pursue criminal charges against political figures linked to extremists.

The move appears to be a sign of the government’s resolve to restore stability during the U.S.-led security crackdown in Baghdad.

Al-Maliki also said during an interview at his Green Zone office that Iraq will work hard to ensure the success of a regional security conference.

The conference in Baghdad, tentatively set for next weekend, is expected to bring together all of Iraq’s neighbors, including Iran and Syria, as well as the United States and Britain to find ways to ease Iraq’s security crisis.

…The prime minister did not say how many Cabinet members would be replaced. But some officials said about nine would lose their jobs, including all six Cabinet members loyal to radical anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, an al-Maliki ally.

Al-Sadr also controls 30 of the 275 parliament seats, and his support for al-Maliki has been responsible for the government’s reluctance to crack down on the cleric’s Mehdi Army militia, blamed for much of the Shiite-Sunni violence of the past year.

U.S. officials had been urging al-Maliki to cut his ties to al-Sadr and form a new alliance of mainstream Shiites, moderate Sunnis and Kurds. Al-Maliki had been stalling, presumably at the urging of the powerful Shiite clerical hierarchy that wants to maintain Shiite unity.

But pressure for change has mounted since President Bush in January ordered 21,500 U.S. troops to Iraq despite widespread opposition in Congress and among the U.S. public — weary of the nearly five-year-long war.

Last month U.S. and Iraqi troops arrested Deputy Health Minister Hakim al-Zamili, an al-Sadr ally, for allegedly diverting millions of dollars in government funds to the Mehdi Army and allowing death squads to use ambulances and government hospitals to carry out kidnappings and killings.

During the interview, al-Maliki said other top officials would face prosecution for ties to insurgents, sectarian militias and death squads — including members of parliament.

“There has been coordination between us and the Multinational Forces … starting at the beginning of this year … to determine who should be arrested and the reasons behind arresting them,” he said.

Al-Maliki did not elaborate on the U.S.-Iraqi coordination but said Iraqi judicial authorities were reviewing case files to decide which to refer to an Iraqi investigative judge, who must decide whether there is enough evidence to order a trial.

Al-Maliki said he was encouraged by Iraqi public response to the new Baghdad security operation — which has led to a sharp drop in violence in the capital.

A sharp drop in violence in the capital AND a strong move against al-Sadr, including the upcoming arrest and/or removal of his allies from the cabinet?  It’s working, folks – the surge is working.

It’s not over yet – not by a long shot.  And let’s have no more premature declarations of victory (something I have been guilty of myself).  But this is progress – real progress.  And with the passage of the oil-sharing plan looking very promising, we have – for the first time since the elections - real hope for the only method by which victory can be achieved – a national identity that overcomes the sectarian killing…