Informed Speculation

President Bush is wisely keeping his cards close to his vest right now regarding any possible Libby pardon:

President Bush said yesterday that he is “pretty much going to stay out of” the case of I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby until the legal process has run its course, deflecting pressure from supporters of the former White House aide to pardon him for perjury and obstruction of justice.

Libby’s allies said Bush should not wait for Libby to be sentenced, and should use his executive power to spare Vice President Cheney’s former chief of staff the risk of prison time for lying to a grand jury and FBI agents about his role in leaking the name of an undercover CIA officer. But the prospect of a pardon triggered condemnation from Democrats and caution from some Republicans wary of another furor.

Defense lawyers for Libby said they are focused on seeking a new trial and appealing Tuesday’s jury verdict, while making clear that they believe the president should step in. “Our number one goal is to see Scooter’s conviction wiped out by the courts and see him vindicated,” attorney William Jeffress Jr. said in an interview. “Now, I’ve seen all the calls for a pardon. And I agree with them. To me, he should have been pardoned six months ago or a year ago.”

In his first comments on the case since the verdict, Bush told CNN en Español that he has to “respect that conviction” but that he “was sad for a man who had worked in my administration.” Bush did not rule out a pardon but implied that it is not imminent. “I’m pretty much going to stay out of it until the course — the case has finally run its final — the course it’s going to take,” he told Univision during an interview before a trip to Latin America that begins today.

Libby still has legal options: his lawyers are seeking a new trial, and he is going to appeal the conviction in any event.  Bush would be foolish to commit one way or another at the moment.  If he’s lucky, the appeals process will drag out until after November, 2008 – and if it does, it’s pretty close to a sure thing he’ll pardon with the election out of the way.

Of course, for Libby, this means untold sums of money that he will have to expend on his defense, so sure, he’d prefer a pardon now.  The political risks are just too great, however – but if the judge sends libby to jail while the case is on appeal, Bush’s hand could be forced:

…Libby could avoid jail time until after the 2008 presidential election through appeals, according to legal specialists — timing that would make a pardon easier for Bush politically.

Libby’s defense team intends to seek a new trial and possibly appeal his conviction on four felony counts. U.S. District Judge Reggie B. Walton has scheduled sentencing for June 5, when many lawyers expect him to allow Libby to remain out of prison pending appeals that could last through late 2008.

Some Republicans said yesterday that Bush should wait for that process to play out. “It’s probably too early for the White House to reach a determination,” said former congressman Robert S. Walker (Pa.), adding that Libby “is certainly entitled to take this into the appeals process, and I don’t think it should be interfered with.”

But if Special Counsel Patrick J. Fitzgerald insists that Libby begin serving his sentence right away and Walton agrees, it could force the question sooner. “Then the issue could ripen very fast,” said Bradford A. Berenson, a former Bush White House lawyer, who said he expects a debate within the White House about what to do.

“It seems likely that the vice president will advocate for a pardon,” he said. “What’s less clear is whether the president would agree.”

The upshot? Sorry, Scooter, you’re on the backburner for now.  No doubt it’s hot…