Comments on: Will It Make A Difference? http://informedspeculation.com/2007/03/16/will-it-make-a-difference/ Refunds Cheerfully Given To All Who Disagree Wed, 17 Mar 2010 23:42:23 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Sean P http://informedspeculation.com/2007/03/16/will-it-make-a-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-260155 Sean P Fri, 16 Mar 2007 15:38:40 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/03/16/will-it-make-a-difference/#comment-260155 Best case scenario, the sanctions will have the same effect on Iran that the sanctions had on Iraq, which is to say it won't deter their quest for nukes in the lease, but it may deter their ability to acquire the materials needed to develop their arsenal (if the Iranians have to purchase materials on the black market they will find themselves with many of the same quality control problems Saddam did and, like Saddam's Iraq, a slew of underlings who found it safer to lie to the big boss about the progress rather than finding themselves thrown in the plastic shredder). Moreover, the Iranian people themselves are quite restless and there are genuine opposition movements in Iran, so merely slowing Iran down might be enough. The big problem with the optomistic scenario, though, is that there will be no way to verify whether its working. We'll either wake up one morning to see Iranian people dancing on rooftops and burning effigies of Khameni, et al., or wake up to a mushroom cloud over, say, Jerusulem with an explicit threat of more to come. Best case scenario, the sanctions will have the same effect on Iran that the sanctions had on Iraq, which is to say it won’t deter their quest for nukes in the lease, but it may deter their ability to acquire the materials needed to develop their arsenal (if the Iranians have to purchase materials on the black market they will find themselves with many of the same quality control problems Saddam did and, like Saddam’s Iraq, a slew of underlings who found it safer to lie to the big boss about the progress rather than finding themselves thrown in the plastic shredder). Moreover, the Iranian people themselves are quite restless and there are genuine opposition movements in Iran, so merely slowing Iran down might be enough.

The big problem with the optomistic scenario, though, is that there will be no way to verify whether its working. We’ll either wake up one morning to see Iranian people dancing on rooftops and burning effigies of Khameni, et al., or wake up to a mushroom cloud over, say, Jerusulem with an explicit threat of more to come.

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