Informed Speculation

The Democrats resorted to desperate measures to line up the House votes needed for the anti-war spending bill, using strong-arm tactics, stuffing the bill with pork, and engaging in very public wars of words:

One of the Democrats’ chief designated vote counters, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), is actively working against the Iraq war spending bill. The leadership’s senior chief deputy whip, Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), spoke passionately against it on the House floor. And one of the whip organization’s regional representatives, Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D-Calif.), is implacably opposed.

The disarray in the House whipping operation ahead of tomorrow’s expected vote on the bill is putting a harsh spotlight on House Majority Whip James E. Clyburn (D-S.C.), who has the task of rounding up the 218 votes needed to pass the $124 billion measure, but who has not even kept his organization in line.

“There’s only one test, and that will be whether we get 218 on the board on Thursday,” said House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), who predicted that Clyburn will come through with the votes.

But the failings of his organization are resurrecting fears that the courtly Southern gentleman is simply too nice for a job known for head-banging, punishment and retribution.

To be sure, House Democratic leaders appear to be making progress toward securing the votes to pass a $124 billion emergency war spending bill that would establish strict readiness standards for deploying combat forces and set a firm deadline of Aug. 31, 2008, to bring U.S. troops home from Iraq. Clyburn and other House Democratic leaders locked down two critical Democratic converts — one liberal, one conservative — yesterday.

At a closed-door gathering of the House Democratic Caucus, Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), a close ally of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and an early opponent of the bill, announced that she had changed her position and will support it when it comes to a vote.

After the caucus meeting, Rep. John Tanner (Tenn.), a leader of the conservative Blue Dog Democrats, said that he, too, will vote for the bill. “The alternative is an open-ended bleeding of our blood and treasure, with no end in sight and no pressure on the Iraqi government to make the changes necessary,” he said.

But their late conversions only pointed up the difficulties in the whip organization. Schakowsky, like Waters, is one of nine chief deputy whips, and her early statements of opposition had stunned leaders. She pledged yesterday to press liberal members of the House Out of Iraq Caucus and Progressive Caucus to fall into line.

Waters may have just cost herself a leadership position here:

As for Waters, action may not come until after the House votes on the Iraq bill, but aides close to Pelosi made it clear that there will be consequences for a chief deputy whip working against the leadership she had sworn to help on tough votes.

“Let’s just say, the speaker has taken notice,” one aide said.

Ummm, hmmm…well, it’s a circus, but it’s all for naught – the plan won’t pass the Senate, and Bush will veto it regardless.  On to the next useless Iraq bill, Speaker Pelosi!…