Informed Speculation

Why is Rudy smiling, asks David Von Drehle of TIME? One possible answer: he’ll win over the envangelicals with motivational techniques.

One midwinter morning in San Diego, I found myself in a traffic jam leading to the local sports arena. It was a magnificent day, bright as a child’s coloring book, but thousands of people were destined to spend it inside, in the dark, listening to a long series of upbeat, can-do speeches—capped by a message from Rudy Giuliani.

In presidential politics, the candidate striking the most optimistic note has the advantage, whether it’s Franklin Roosevelt facing down fear, Ronald Reagan awakening to morning in America or Bill Clinton believing in a place called Hope. Giuliani is banking on this. Since leaving office, he has toiled diligently in the vineyard of positive thinking, delivering hundreds of motivational speeches—and earning millions in fees—to huge audiences of potential voters at conventions, commencements and all-day seminars like this one.

By the time Giuliani was introduced, his audience had heard some six hours of encouragement on topics ranging from spiritual health to real estate. Still, they sprang to their feet cheering as he took the stage, indoor fireworks booming, streamers cascading around his slightly hunched shoulders, Frank Sinatra blaring from the sound system.

“Ru-dy! Ru-dy! Ru-dy!” they chanted. “I have to warn you,” he began, “I always say something that gets people upset.”

But not today. New Yorkers who remember an irascible mayor scolding citizens, denouncing critics and questing after new enemies would be amazed by the sunshiney fellow Giuliani has become. He explained his six principles of leadership, which helped him through 9/11 and “also can help you in your personal life.” Things like knowing what you stand for, setting goals and having courage.

“You have to be an optimist,” he said, preaching to the choir. Reagan was. “People used to say he saw the country through rose-colored glasses. If you don’t see it that way, you can’t make it that way.”

Much has been made of Giuliani’s likely troubles with religious conservatives in his party over abortion and gay rights. “Everyone really likes and respects the mayor personally,” said Florida Republican strategist Brian Ballard, who has cast his lot with McCain. “But it’s tough to take that record and run in a conservative primary.”

The influence of single-issue social conservatives in Republican presidential politics is often exaggerated, however. The first choice of the Christian-right leadership rarely ends up being the party’s nominee. And even in some of the most conservative states, the power of social issues may be on the ebb. Voters in South Dakota rejected a stern antiabortion law in November. A similar bill in Utah failed in early March. Kansas has restored Darwin to public school classrooms and tossed out the state attorney general who sought to examine abortion records.

By mastering the language of the motivational circuit, Giuliani has tapped into an alternative vein of American religious thought—the gospel of success. The idea that God intends for Americans to prosper is as old as the nation. A century ago, Russell Conwell, a Baptist preacher, distilled this gospel in his speech “Acres of Diamonds.” Through some 6,000 public appearances, the tireless Conwell told his exotic story of a man who left his farm to search the globe for gems, only to die penniless and bereft—while the world’s largest diamond mine lay waiting to be discovered on the man’s original acreage. In every life, Conwell preached, untold riches wait just beneath the surface, because our success is God’s will.

From Napoleon Hill (Think and Grow Rich) to Norman Vincent Peale (The Power of Positive Thinking), from Zig Ziglar (Born to Win) to Rick Warren (The Purpose-Driven Life), this idea has never lost its power over the American imagination. Giuliani tries to tap into that power by presenting himself as the ultimate can-do politician, a man who approaches government like a business, who prefers results over ideologies and who sees victory as the national birthright. “The reason I ran for mayor of New York is the same reason I’m running for President of the United States: because I believe I can change things,” Giuliani tells TIME—big things like America’s dependence on foreign oil, its troubled health care system and the federal spending spree. “I believe I can make government more like a business … a problem solver rather than a problem creator.

“Nobody believed I could do it,” he continues. The secret to his success, he explains, in a pure expression of the motivational faith, is that he refuses to accept failure. “I believe there are sensible, commonsense things you can do that will make government once again look to people like a functioning, problem-solving organization.”

It’s plausible enough; after all, motivational skills are a big part of leadership perception, and it’s the perception that he’s a leader that is Rudy’s greatest asset.  Good read…