Parsing The Gallup Poll – The Republicans
Okay, what morsels can we dig out of the latest polling data for the elephants?
Rudy is at 38%, McCain at 16%, Gingrich and Thompson at 10%, and Romney at 6%.
First off, and quite obviously, McCain is in deep trouble, as is well known and acknowledged even by the Senator and his campaign staff. Many changes are afoot, and they are needed. When the presumed front-runner is running at less than 50% of the support of his nearest rival, though, things are looking a bit grim at the moment.
McCain’s troubles are many, as we’ve discussed before…he’s tied to the success or failure of an unpopular war, he’s long been anathema to some conservatives because of McCain/Feingold, he’s got to fight the age issue, and he definitely underachieved in his Q1 fundraising.
Romney certainly didn’t underachieve in Q1 fundraising, but he continues to post such anemic numbers that I refuse to consider him in the top rank. Come back and talk to me after you break double digits.
Gingrich and Thompson are pretty much one and the same here…their support is composed largely of conservatives who are unhappy with the frontrunners. Gingrich is, of course, unelectable, and I thought that might not apply to Thompson – but today we learned he has cancer. This will weigh heavily on the minds of some voters, though perhaps not many – I don’t think it will have a major impact, and he says it’s treatable and under control. What’s important to note is that the 20% going to Gingrich and Thompson is largely a protest vote, and this 20% will not go to Rudy or McCain easily, though I suspect most will crack if either comes to truly seem inevitable and the Democratic nominee looks like Hillary.
So we come to the big dog. Rudy has had a bad few weeks in the headlines (though this often happens to frontrunners), as his sometimes poor judgment regarding family and friends has taken the limelight, along with some positions that certainly aren’t sitting well with social conservatives.
And yet, his polling has stayed remarkably consistent. Though I suspect his margins will decline, I’m beginning to think that Rudy’s 38% is rock solid – these are the Rudy supporters, in other words, who KNOW all the bad news, and still say he’s my man. He may have a hard time going up, but it appears that he is remarkably immune from going down. As I said, though, the race will tighten – it’s too far out, and there’s still a lot of dirt to be flung. But given the fact that the Gingrich/Thompson 20% won’t go to McCain, and that Romney is polling so low that he still would lag appreciably if all of the 20% went to him, I’d say Rudy is in the catbird seat at the moment…
As far as Thompson and Gingrich go, I’ll say essentially the same for them as I did for Gore. Their numbers now may be artificially low, considering that they haven’t formally announced yet.
And I don’t know if I’d call them exclusively protest votes. I mean, where was the 10% that supported Thompson before people started tossing his name around? I ask in earnest, did he take away from Huckabee, Brownback, Hunter, Tancredo, et al? It looks to me like the person he hurt the most was Romney, since I don;t recall him polling this low before.
As far as Thompson having cancer, if that’s a disqualifier, then we’re down to a two-way race (with very bad odds either way) on the GOP side: Romney vs. Gingrich.
Well, if Thompson gets in, many thing are will supposedly change, though he shouldn’t. I highly doubt Gingrich is going to go anywhere — my opinion is that he could beaten by Hillary due to his nature, and his man-image is lacking. On this poll — Romney is up from the last actually, but not the highest he has gotten in other months on this poll. Right now – I’d say we have a four-way race – Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and Thompson (it seems likely he will be). Giuliani is well known, McCain is attempting to reshape his image, Romney is rising in various polls, and Thompson – well, I don’t understand his backing. I don’t see the other candidates able to move themselves in this race.
Thompson’s biggest strength to me is his appeal as a compromise candidate. I’m more on the libertarian side of the ledger, and the more I see of Romney, the less I like him. I think he’s a panderer more than a leader, and I feel like he’s focusing almost exclusively on social issues, i.e., issues that don’t really inspire me. I think I’ve reached the point with Romney that many social conservatives have reached with my man, Giuliani – I don’t think I could vote for him in the general election.
But Thompson? From what I’ve seen of him, he strikes me as a no-nonsense guy who is conservative without seeming to be focused on moral crusades. Social conservatives like his general aura of downhome values. There is something of a Reaganesque balancing act he’s striking. For that reason, I could see him really taking off. (My guess is the cancer disclosure won’t come to much.)
My biggest concern with Thompson is he remains something of an Obama. There’s a lot of projection going on here. I like what I’ve seen, but I haven’t seen much. (And from a more shallow perspective, he comes off as a little grumpy. I kind of like that, but Americans seem to prefer optimists.)
Oh, and that clanking sound you here? That’s the sound of conventional wisdom getting shoved around as pundits try to figure out why Giuliani’s numbers are holding steady.
Well Mark, as usual it’s hard to argue with your analysis. It’s also depressing. Nominating Giuliani in ’08 seems akin to the Dems shuning Howard Dean for John Kerry based on Kerry’s supposed “electability.” How well did that work out for them? My head hurts and my stomach is in knots; not sure if it’s the flu that’s running through my family or if it’s the thought of having to choose between two liberals next November.
“Oh, and that clanking sound you here? That’s the sound of conventional wisdom getting shoved around as pundits try to figure out why Giuliani’s numbers are holding steady.” – Dennis
Very good Dennis.
JB,
I, like many Republicans, are supporting Rudy for lots of policy/ideologic reasons—not just because he’s “electable”. But electability SHOULD matter. So do electoral college considerations, by which Rudy comes off quite well.
You compared nominating Rudy to the Dems nominating Kerry last time. Well, Kerry nearly won. Dean would’ve been a disaster for the Democrats–they wised up and picked a “compromise” candidate whom they thought would be more electable. I’d argue that they picked their best candidate (of those Dems running in ’04).
P.S. Rudy’s no liberal. I also don’t agree with him on everything but his ideology (moderate on social issues/strong on the war and terror/keeping taxes lower/cutting spending) are where most of the country is–like it or not.
Rudy’s numbers are indeed solid, and based on the Churchill Factor — in worrisome times, people not only want but need what they perceive to be strong leadership, and will accept warts. The 20% leaning to Thompson and Gingrich may have to hold their noses in 08.
RE: Post 4
Well, Kerry did get 48% of the vote and took a couple of battleground states. And even if he wasn’t electable per se, he was more electable than Dean, at least.
The thing about Kerry was the claim of electability was pretty much on faith. With Rudy, the claim of electability is based on a two year track record of consistently beating Hillary in head to head matchups (sometimes by close margins, sometimes by wipeouts), and by being the only Republican candidate to consistently outpoll Obama. I’m not saying the polls are perfect, especially this far out, but at least there is some objective criteria backing up the electability claim for Rudy boosters.
I want the Congress back in Republican hands.
For that to happen we need a landslide and of all the candidates, Guiliani is the only one able to attack successfully opponent strongholds. Show me a Dem who could win losing Conn, NJ, NH, Maine, Penn, perhaps Mass and even New York. For that matter show me a Dem who could win losing a single one of those states…