McCain Drops To Third In New Poll
Well, well, well, it’s certainly been a bad early spring for John McCain. To be losing so decisively to Rudy is one thing, but when an undeclared candidate is running ahead of the former frontrunner, that’s big:
Sen. John McCain, once considered the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, has fallen to third place in a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, and is running behind Fred Thompson, an actor and former senator who has not even entered the race.
Former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani leads the crowded field of announced and potential contenders with support from 29% of probable Republican primary voters surveyed, followed by Thompson with 15% and McCain with 12%. Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and a fundraising powerhouse, had 8%.
Again the single digits for Romney. No surprise on the Democratic side:
When Democrats were asked to assess their own broad field of potential candidates — including former Vice President Al Gore, who has not said he will run — Clinton drew support from 33% of respondents. Obama drew 23% and Edwards 14%. Gore, enjoying a burst of publicity surrounding a documentary on global warming that features him, was backed by 13%.
Man, but there are a LOT of polls this time around. I think we all went into the wrong business (unless, of course, you’re a pollster yourself)…
I noticed that while McCain was doing better in the polls, the Jon Stewarts of the world were losing their old respect for him – hey, he’s a Republican after all! Now that he’s doing poorly again, I suspect he’ll start seeming cool again.
I doubt he’ll be doing any better so long as he ties himself to the war. I also think the fact that he seems to be carrying water for Bush has much to do with his slide in both the polls and amongst the punditry.
David Brooks and Jonathan Chait were on NPR last night talking about McCain.
Brooks spent the last few weeks traveling with McCain and has come away with the impression, and conclusion, that he is at peace with himself and his positions on the issues, that he’s decided to stand up for what he believes and whatever happens, happens. Brooks sees this as a sort of noble, answer-the-call resurgence of the patented “straight talk express”.
Chait talks a somewhat contrary and cynical view: McCain is simply doing what he must – in fact, Chait believes it is the only thing he CAN do – to advance his standing in the campaign. He expressed his belief that McCain is like all successful politicians in that he reads the electorate’s mood pretty well and, in this case, is betting that the politician answering a noble call will put him back in one of the top spots.
I suspect there will come a time when McCain will drop low enough that he will get a sympathy bounce.
I’ve been leaning towards Rudy for a long time now, but I will say in McCain’s defense that he is still doing much better than John Kerry was doing at this stage in the 2004 Presidential cycle.
Thumpalumpacus: Why would McCain’s stand on the war have any impact on his GOP support? Rudy and Mitt and Thompson all support the war. President Bush is still very popular among Republicans. I note that Hegal is not suddenly in the lead.
Bob: I think the extent to which McCain’s war stance hurts him is indirect.
His position is popular, and is earning plaudits among many erstwhile critics. But it is hurting him among independants, which deprives McCain of his number one selling card — his electability. Without electability, many of his supporters are flocking to Rudy, who’se support for the surge isn’t hurting him among independants at this time (that’s the only explaination I can come up with for why Rudy’s numbers are steady despite the rough couple of weeks he’s been having).
No doubt. Talk about a rapidly growing industry. I wonder how you become a pollster and how much they make? Worth looking into maybe.
I would add that McCain is much more connected to and outspoken about the war than the other candidates. I believe most GOP voters would really just prefer to ignore the war as much as possible at this point and it’s easier to do that with someone who wan’t in the Senate to vote for it at the time or has been particularly strong in his support of the war, not to mention the even less popular surge.