Comments on: Straw Poll Results Due Shortly http://informedspeculation.com/2007/08/11/straw-poll-results-due-shortly/ Refunds Cheerfully Given To All Who Disagree Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:53:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: Sean P http://informedspeculation.com/2007/08/11/straw-poll-results-due-shortly/comment-page-1/#comment-327437 Sean P Sun, 12 Aug 2007 14:13:20 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/08/11/straw-poll-results-due-shortly/#comment-327437 Ryan, settle down. This isn't the national party -- its the state of Iowa, where social conservatives have outsized influence. And it isn't the entire electorate, but a small group of committed activists, which skews the results even further. And, finally, there was no campaigning by Rudy, Fred or McCain (as top tier candidates a seventh place finish doesn't hurt anymore than a second place finish, so there was little upside to competing or downside to sitting it out). The best Huckabee can hope for is to peel enough votes away from Romney to prevent him from winning Iowa, and that would only result in the contest going to somebody else (ie: Rudy or Thompson). As for his future, running mate is out of the question. Rudy (if he's the nominee) will need a so-con, preferably a southern one, on the bottom of the ticket, but he isn't going to pick one who can't even beat Hillary in his (nominally red) home state of Arkansas. As for Senate, I think his chances just became a lot smaller, because Huckabee is probably now in the race through early 2008, which will make it impossible for him to campaign for Lincoln's senate seat when it comes up in 2008. Ryan, settle down. This isn’t the national party — its the state of Iowa, where social conservatives have outsized influence. And it isn’t the entire electorate, but a small group of committed activists, which skews the results even further. And, finally, there was no campaigning by Rudy, Fred or McCain (as top tier candidates a seventh place finish doesn’t hurt anymore than a second place finish, so there was little upside to competing or downside to sitting it out). The best Huckabee can hope for is to peel enough votes away from Romney to prevent him from winning Iowa, and that would only result in the contest going to somebody else (ie: Rudy or Thompson).

As for his future, running mate is out of the question. Rudy (if he’s the nominee) will need a so-con, preferably a southern one, on the bottom of the ticket, but he isn’t going to pick one who can’t even beat Hillary in his (nominally red) home state of Arkansas. As for Senate, I think his chances just became a lot smaller, because Huckabee is probably now in the race through early 2008, which will make it impossible for him to campaign for Lincoln’s senate seat when it comes up in 2008.

]]> By: Ryan Bonneville http://informedspeculation.com/2007/08/11/straw-poll-results-due-shortly/comment-page-1/#comment-327344 Ryan Bonneville Sun, 12 Aug 2007 07:32:50 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/08/11/straw-poll-results-due-shortly/#comment-327344 Ugh, sorry for the double-post, but here's Huckabee on his second-place finish: "We had two fish and five loaves and it fed 5,000." After the last 6 years, that the GOP might even think about nominating a Southern doofus who loves big government as much as he hates science and who discusses his political victories by quoting the Bible says a lot about the current state of the GOP. 2008 is shaping up to be a disaster of epic proportions. Not that I think Huckabee is going to be the nominee, but it's certainly not out of the question that he could end up as Giuliani's running mate or a senator. Neither of those possibilities are at all good. Ugh, sorry for the double-post, but here’s Huckabee on his second-place finish: “We had two fish and five loaves and it fed 5,000.” After the last 6 years, that the GOP might even think about nominating a Southern doofus who loves big government as much as he hates science and who discusses his political victories by quoting the Bible says a lot about the current state of the GOP. 2008 is shaping up to be a disaster of epic proportions.

Not that I think Huckabee is going to be the nominee, but it’s certainly not out of the question that he could end up as Giuliani’s running mate or a senator. Neither of those possibilities are at all good.

]]> By: Ryan Bonneville http://informedspeculation.com/2007/08/11/straw-poll-results-due-shortly/comment-page-1/#comment-327342 Ryan Bonneville Sun, 12 Aug 2007 07:24:14 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/08/11/straw-poll-results-due-shortly/#comment-327342 God, I loathe Huckabee. I am so incredibly sad that this has probably guaranteed that his constant presence in all election-related journalism. Headaches will ensue. God, I loathe Huckabee. I am so incredibly sad that this has probably guaranteed that his constant presence in all election-related journalism. Headaches will ensue.

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