Informed Speculation

A number of new articles have shed light on Israel’s air raid on Syria on September 6th, and it is becoming more and more probable that it was related to nuclear trade between Syria and North Korea:

Israel’s decision to attack Syria on Sept. 6, bombing a suspected nuclear site set up in apparent collaboration with North Korea, came after Israel shared intelligence with President Bush this summer indicating that North Korean nuclear personnel were in Syria, U.S. government sources said.

The Bush administration has not commented on the Israeli raid or the underlying intelligence. Although the administration was deeply troubled by Israel’s assertion that North Korea was assisting the nuclear ambitions of a country closely linked with Iran, sources said, the White House opted against an immediate response because of concerns it would undermine long-running negotiations aimed at persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.

Ultimately, however, the United States is believed to have provided Israel with some corroboration of the original intelligence before Israel proceeded with the raid, which hit the Syrian facility in the dead of night to minimize possible casualties, the sources said.

The target of Israel’s attack was said to be in northern Syria, near the Turkish border. A Middle East expert who interviewed one of the pilots involved said they operated under such strict operational security that the airmen flying air cover for the attack aircraft did not know the details of the mission. The pilots who conducted the attack were briefed only after they were in the air, he said. Syrian authorities said there were no casualties.

U.S. sources would discuss the Israeli intelligence, which included satellite imagery, only on condition of anonymity, and many details about the North Korean-Syrian connection remain unknown. The quality of the Israeli intelligence, the extent of North Korean assistance and the seriousness of the Syrian effort are uncertain, raising the possibility that North Korea was merely unloading items it no longer needed. Syria has actively pursued chemical weapons in the past but not nuclear arms — leaving some proliferation experts skeptical of the intelligence that prompted Israel’s attack.

Syria and North Korea both denied this week that they were cooperating on a nuclear program. Bush refused to comment yesterday on the attack, but he issued a blunt warning to North Korea that “the exportation of information and/or materials” would affect negotiations under which North Korea would give up its nuclear programs in exchanges for energy aid and diplomatic recognition.

“To the extent that they are proliferating, we expect them to stop that proliferation, if they want the six-party talks to be successful,” he said at a news conference, referring to negotiations that also include China, Japan, South Korea and Russia.

Unlike its destruction of an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, Israel made no announcement of the recent raid and imposed strict censorship on reporting by the Israeli media. Syria made only muted protests, and Arab leaders have remained silent. As a result, a daring and apparently successful attack to eliminate a potential nuclear threat has been shrouded in mystery.

“There is no question it was a major raid. It was an extremely important target,” said Bruce Riedel, a former intelligence officer at Brookings Institution‘s Saban Center for Middle East Policy. “It came at a time the Israelis were very concerned about war with Syria and wanted to dampen down the prospects of war. The decision was taken despite their concerns it could produce a war. That decision reflects how important this target was to Israeli military planners.”

Israel has long known about Syria’s interest in chemical and even biological weapons, but “if Syria decided to go beyond that, Israel would think that was a real red line,” Riedel said.

Edward Djerejian, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and founding director of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said that when he was in Israel this summer he noticed “a great deal of concern in official Israeli circles about the situation in the north,” in particular whether Syria’s young ruler, Bashar al-Assad, “had the same sensitivity to red lines that his father had.” Bashar succeeded his Hafez al-Assad as president of Syria in 2000.

The Israeli attack came just three days after a North Korean ship docked at the Syrian port of Tartus, carrying a cargo that was officially listed as cement.

PostGlobal provides a fairly comprehensive analysis of current speculation, not all of it supportive of the nuclear theory:

…[H]ere’s generally what analysts and commentators are saying presently about the mysterious Israeli air attack:

• The strategic forecasting firm Stratfor best sums up the view of global analysts in reports, “”The mystery is deep and we are baffled, but it does not strike us as trivial. Something important happened.”
• About the only uncontested facts are that Israeli planes crossed the border into Syria on Thursday, September 6 and no one, not Israel, not Syria, not the US, is giving any details. Syria reported only one plane and no damage. However, The Guardian reported, “Far from being a minor incursion, the Israeli overflight of Syrian airspace through its ally, Turkey, was a far more major affair involving as many as eight aircraft, including Israel’s most ultra-modern F-15s and F-16s equipped with Maverick missiles and 500lb bombs. Flying among the Israeli fighters at great height, The Observer can reveal, was an ELINT – an electronic intelligence gathering aircraft.”
• The theory most widely held in the media at present is that the raid was against the Dayr az-Zaw complex in the northern part of Syria and that the complex was destroyed.
• No one really knows what was at the raid site, if in fact it was Dayr az-Zaw. Speculation ranges from a secret nuclear reactor to a missile storage site.
• Some believe the raid was arranged by Israel and the Turkish military to remind the newly elected Islamist government of PM Erdogan and President Gul who runs the Middle East show.
• Some believe the raid was designed to re-establish Israel’s deterrence capacity
• Some believe the attack was designed to test new Russian-made air defense systems.
• Some believe it was a dry run for an attack on Iran and intended to send a message to Iran that Israel can hit wherever and whenever it wants.
• Quite a few analysts believe the story about a secret Syrian nuclear facility makes little sense…Syria has been on an Israel/US schmoozing drive of recent…the Dayr az-Zaw site is right on the border with pro-West Turkey, an absurd place for an ultra-secret nuclear facility…South Korea dismisses the idea that North Korea is helping Syria with a clandestine nuclear plan, saying there’s not a shred of evidence. According to the Jerusalem Post, “A week after the attack, the US announced its intention to give Pyongyang $25 million worth of heavy fuel oil in return for Pynogyang’s good faith in their nuclear activities.” The Post also reports that members of the Israeli military have recommended renewing discussion about giving the Golan Heights back to Syria. These things would never occur if North Korea were supplying nuclear materials or parts to Syria.
• There is also more than a little speculation supporting the dry-run-for-Iran theory that the Administration’s neocons are determined to start a war with Iran before George Bush leaves office and that the raid was both intended to send a message to Iran and to build support for a war. According again to the Guardian, “Perhaps more worrying [facts supporting this theory] are the well-sourced claims from conservative thinktanks in the US that there have been ‘instructions’ by the office of Vice-President Dick Cheney to roll our support for a war against Iran.”
• Canada’s Globe and Mail reports on a rumor that the raid was intended to take out (assassinate) Khaled Meshaal, leader-in-exile of Hamas.
• By keeping the raid’s purpose so secret, some analysts believe Israel has achieved something far beyond the value of the raid itself…the world has bought into the success of the raid (even if it wasn’t actually successful) and that alone has restored Israel’s deterence capacity.

Whatever the truth is, I would think a powerful signal has been sent, not just to the Syrians, but to Iran: the U.S. may be in an untenable position regarding Iran’s nuclear program, but Israel is not.  If it sees the need and the opportunity, it will strike without hesitation.  And that’s very good news indeed for those who still think it’s a critical necessity that Iran be prevented from getting the bomb…