One Week From Iowa
Back in business after an extended Christmas break (among my gifts – an HD DVD player with the 5-disc Blade Runner collection – how cool is that?). Hard to believe, but Iowa is a scant seven days away now.
On the Republican side, the real suspense is two-fold – can Romney hold off a late-charging Huckabee, and can Rudy pull off a third-place finish? On the Democratic side, I fully expect a Hillary victory, surging Edwards or not…she’s got the ground game (and for the same reason, I think Romney may still deal Huckabee a setback – if not, he may be in trouble).
Here’s where the fun begins!…
I am hoping against hope for an Obama win, but it’s looking less and less likely. On the GOP side, it’s hard to say what my preference is. Certainly neither Huck nor Romney, though, so I guess it doesn’t matter.
See, the Democratic caucus process is so Byzantine that I think it would take a really, really extensive poll in a race this close to really tell what is going on there. I think as much as we’d like to make our predictions, there’s really no telling until it happens.
I think you’re correct on Hillary vs Edwards. I think that it is easy to say you’ll support Edwards when you are being polled, much harder to cast your vote for him, especially vs Hillary.
But, heck, what do I know? That’s why they play the games, right?
Well, keep in mind that the second vote counts in caucuses, too, making the kind of calculus you describe, TMS, change significantly.
Oh, right you are, I’d forgotten about that.