Comments on: Iowa Predictions http://informedspeculation.com/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/ Refunds Cheerfully Given To All Who Disagree Tue, 09 Feb 2010 03:29:20 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Predictions For Iowa | Anne Arundel Maryland Politics - aapolitics.us http://informedspeculation.com/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-508475 Predictions For Iowa | Anne Arundel Maryland Politics - aapolitics.us Sun, 15 Jun 2008 00:25:27 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/#comment-508475 [...] early stretch with enough of his former luster intact to win Florida and stay alive…" -- Decision '08 "The order ... Edwards, Obama, Clinton, Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich. And it will be [...] [...] early stretch with enough of his former luster intact to win Florida and stay alive…" — Decision ‘08 "The order … Edwards, Obama, Clinton, Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich. And it will be [...]

]]> By: Ali A. Akbar http://informedspeculation.com/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-417216 Ali A. Akbar Fri, 04 Jan 2008 07:19:27 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/#comment-417216 Ouch. Tough luck man. Oh well... better next time haha. Your predictions were slaughtered. Happens. Can't wait for NH! Ouch. Tough luck man. Oh well… better next time haha.
Your predictions were slaughtered. Happens. Can’t wait for NH!

]]> By: Craig http://informedspeculation.com/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-416559 Craig Thu, 03 Jan 2008 07:59:23 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/#comment-416559 GOP: <b>1. Mike Huckabee</b> 2. Mitt Romney 3. John McCain 4. Fred Thompson 5. Ron Paul 6. Rudy Giuliani DEM: <b>1. Hillary Clinton</b> 2. Barack Obama 3. John Edwards 4. Joe Biden 5. Bill Richardson 6. Christopher Dodd I think that Huck and Mitt will nearly tie in Iowa but Mike Huckabee will come out on top. Ron Paul will pull out a huge surprise by leading his army over Rudy's defunct Iowa machine. Hillary Clinton will just squeak by with the top Democratic candidates within 5% of each other. The bottom three contenders from the Democrats will pull out within days leaving Hillary, Barack and John to duke it out. GOP: 1. Mike Huckabee 2. Mitt Romney 3. John McCain 4. Fred Thompson 5. Ron Paul 6. Rudy Giuliani
DEM: 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama 3. John Edwards 4. Joe Biden 5. Bill Richardson 6. Christopher Dodd

I think that Huck and Mitt will nearly tie in Iowa but Mike Huckabee will come out on top. Ron Paul will pull out a huge surprise by leading his army over Rudy’s defunct Iowa machine. Hillary Clinton will just squeak by with the top Democratic candidates within 5% of each other. The bottom three contenders from the Democrats will pull out within days leaving Hillary, Barack and John to duke it out.

]]> By: Andy http://informedspeculation.com/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-414953 Andy Tue, 01 Jan 2008 03:35:48 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/#comment-414953 Clint, I should be a little clearer. I think it is the fiscal/social conservatives that will determine the nominee. Even if Huck takes 1st in Iowa, it won't get him far past Florida where Rudy is waiting to take off. Mitt needs to rack up the early states before Florida. However, beyond Florida, I think Rudy's greatest threat would actually be slugging it out with Thompson & Mitt while McCain lies in wait to pick up the conservative pieces. Huck simply doesn't have what it takes to go the distance, regardless of Iowa/New Hampshire results. Clint, I should be a little clearer. I think it is the fiscal/social conservatives that will determine the nominee.

Even if Huck takes 1st in Iowa, it won’t get him far past Florida where Rudy is waiting to take off. Mitt needs to rack up the early states before Florida. However, beyond Florida, I think Rudy’s greatest threat would actually be slugging it out with Thompson & Mitt while McCain lies in wait to pick up the conservative pieces. Huck simply doesn’t have what it takes to go the distance, regardless of Iowa/New Hampshire results.

]]> By: Clint http://informedspeculation.com/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-414875 Clint Tue, 01 Jan 2008 01:15:37 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/#comment-414875 Andy- I'd love to believe that Huckabee is already out of it, but I think he's got too much support in Iowa to vanish just yet. My guesses: GOP: Romney and Huckabee a close 1 & 2; then Thompson and McCain a close 3 & 4 Dem: Obama, Clinton, Edwards, but with the total spread from first to third less than 10 percentage points. If Thompson doesn't take 3rd, he's done. If Huckabee manages 1st, Romney's in trouble and McCain surges to win NH. If Edwards does come in 3rd, it's over for him. Andy- I’d love to believe that Huckabee is already out of it, but I think he’s got too much support in Iowa to vanish just yet.

My guesses:
GOP: Romney and Huckabee a close 1 & 2; then Thompson and McCain a close 3 & 4
Dem: Obama, Clinton, Edwards, but with the total spread from first to third less than 10 percentage points.

If Thompson doesn’t take 3rd, he’s done.
If Huckabee manages 1st, Romney’s in trouble and McCain surges to win NH.
If Edwards does come in 3rd, it’s over for him.

]]> By: Sean P http://informedspeculation.com/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-414696 Sean P Mon, 31 Dec 2007 20:10:55 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/#comment-414696 I'm going with Huckabee, Romney, McCain on the Republican side (don't know if Rudy or Thompson will finish 4th). On the Dem side, I honestly haven't been following too closely (since the ultimate result is pretty much a foregone conclusion) but I think Iowa Dems are cognisant of the fact that there vote will determine whether the Dem contest is a race or a coronation and will pick one of Hillary's opponents. I just don't know which. I’m going with Huckabee, Romney, McCain on the Republican side (don’t know if Rudy or Thompson will finish 4th).

On the Dem side, I honestly haven’t been following too closely (since the ultimate result is pretty much a foregone conclusion) but I think Iowa Dems are cognisant of the fact that there vote will determine whether the Dem contest is a race or a coronation and will pick one of Hillary’s opponents. I just don’t know which.

]]> By: Hillary Clinton » Iowa Predictions http://informedspeculation.com/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-414222 Hillary Clinton » Iowa Predictions Mon, 31 Dec 2007 07:52:24 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/#comment-414222 [...] Here’s another interesting post I read today by Decision ‘08 [...] [...] Here’s another interesting post I read today by Decision ‘08 [...]

]]> By: Andy http://informedspeculation.com/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-414218 Andy Mon, 31 Dec 2007 07:45:06 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/12/31/iowa-predictions/#comment-414218 My $0.02 GOP: 1) Romney, 2) McCain, 3) Thompson - don't count him out, particularly in post-Iowa races where I think most of the 2nd tier supporters will shift to Thompson. I think Huckabee is a dead man walking. DNC: 1) Obama, 2) Edwards, 3) Clinton -- due to their 15% rule, I think Obama/Edwards are the 2nd/3rd choice of all 2nd tier candidate supporters. Can anyone fathom Hillary gleaning any 2nd round votes from the losers? My $0.02
GOP: 1) Romney, 2) McCain, 3) Thompson – don’t count him out, particularly in post-Iowa races where I think most of the 2nd tier supporters will shift to Thompson. I think Huckabee is a dead man walking.

DNC: 1) Obama, 2) Edwards, 3) Clinton — due to their 15% rule, I think Obama/Edwards are the 2nd/3rd choice of all 2nd tier candidate supporters. Can anyone fathom Hillary gleaning any 2nd round votes from the losers?

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