Comments on: And Then Came New Hampshire

By: Connecting News, Commentaries and Blogs at NineReports.com -

Connecting News, Commentaries and Blogs at NineReports.com - — Sun, 27 Jan 2008 04:38:35 +0000

[...] is a loony … cause i can – Last Updated – Friday January 25 Request a Trackback And Then Came New Hampshire Those looking to read the tea leaves for Tuesday’s New Hampshire vote are asking if the Iowa [...]

By: Sean P

Sean P — Sat, 12 Jan 2008 00:48:16 +0000

Clint:

Maybe, but just for s&g here’s a link from someone else who recently made this speculation:

http://www.eyeon08.com/2008/01/11/fred-for-real-or-a-stalking-horse/

By: CinemActivist

CinemActivist — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 23:06:15 +0000

What you think of Giuliani deciding not to attend Iowa and NH? I find it a bit pompous. You should check out this DVD “Giuliani Time”. It’ll tell you a lot about what Giuliani really is like.

You can get it here: http://www.cinemalibrestore.com

By: Aaron

Aaron — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 05:54:20 +0000

I came across an interesting article from the Time of London a few hours ago. This main point that I took from it focuses on the 38% likelihood that a GOP candidate will be in the White House in 2009.

The columnist, Tim Hames, suggests that because the 38% is an average of all GOP candidates against all Dems, the prospect of a GOP president rises when the nominee is more moderate (such as McCain or Giuliani) and declines for the more conservative candidates (Huckabee and Romney), and that Thompson has exactly a 38% chance (if he gets the nomination).

I’m hoping that the calculation actually includes Ron Paul with his zero percent chance of winning a general election, but since he also has a zero percent chance of getting the GOP nod, his prospects against Hillary probably aren’t included.

Anyway, while I am a Giuliani supporter, I think that McCain is, at worst, only slightly less electable (due more to his age than any policy reasons) and I would be very pleased with him as a candidate.

By: Clint

Clint — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 03:58:59 +0000

As much as I like Thompson’s stands on the issues… I agree that he’s probably not going anywhere. His big problem (surprisingly for a professional actor) is in articulating his views. He has strong convictions, and a good grasp of the issues, but he’s just not inspiring when he speaks — he doesn’t sound passionate.

Sean — I don’t think it’s at all that complicated or Machiavellian. It’s just that SC is his best shot to make a move, if Huckabee has imploded sufficiently by then.

By: Greg

Greg — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 01:07:06 +0000

I think Thompson is waiting to see where the Romney vote goes. Since Thompson is the highest-polling conservative other than Romney, he probably has strong comeback hopes if he does well in SC.

By: Sean P

Sean P — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 00:21:37 +0000

Fred Thompson is already finished, and he knows it. Right now, he’s staying in the race as pennance to McCain for almost muscling him out of the race six months ago. Notice how he isn’t campaigning in New Hampshire, where he would probably split the anti-Romney vote, but he IS campaigning in South Carolina, where he would likely split the southern favorite-son vote?

By: Mark

Mark — Sun, 06 Jan 2008 22:20:04 +0000

You’ve got a point – there’s definitely a chance Thompson will stay in until Super Tuesday. I’m not trying to prematurely write him off, but I can’t see any possible narrative that puts him back in the race. He’s running a distant third in South Carolina at the moment, or even fourth, as McCain as inching up in that state also…

By: Clint

Clint — Sun, 06 Jan 2008 22:17:22 +0000

“(though I still say Fred Thompson is a good bet to go, and go quickly)”

You keep saying this, and I keep scratching my head. Thompson isn’t expecting to place in New Hampshire, so why would he drop out when that happens? Thompson’s Do-or-Die state is South Carolina. If he doesn’t come in at least second there he’s probably out. If he does get at least second, he’ll stick around another week until Super-Duper-Tuesday.