The End Of An Odd Campaign
Fred Thompson is out – of course, you heard this much earlier, but I couldn’t get to my PC until now. Thompson never really seemed to have his heart in it, and his entire campaign, in retrospect, feels a bit forced and phony. I certainly never thought he had a shot, and the most interesting thing to me about his departure is the question of where his former supporters will land. There has been some talk that Thompson might endorse McCain, though his advisors say he won’t make an endorsement, but I don’t think the people who were attracted to his candidacy will switch to McCain, certainly not just because Thompson says to.
Thompson’s departure might give a boost to a Huckabee campaign that seems to be on life support at the moment (though we all remember when McCain himself was written off as dead by virtually everyone, including yours truly). Let’s play a little game, though, for a minute. Assume that the Republican race eventually comes down to one conservative (probably Romney) and one moderate (probably McCain, though perhaps Giuliani, if his unorthodox strategy starts working in Florida).
Rather than relying on a single poll, let’s use the RealClearPolitics polling average and see who might win such a race:
McCain and Giuliani combine for 40.9%. Romney, Huckabee and Thompson (now gone, of course) combine for 43.2%. Paul’s 4.1% is probably not going anywhere. That leaves an undecided portion of about 12% or so. What does our little game tell us?
Not much, actually. Why? Because that 12% or so that is undecided will likely start chasing the winner. The ‘moderate’ versus ‘conservative’ Republican vote is close enough, in other words, that whoever comes out of the Florida primary and Super Tuesday with a head of steam and the most headlines. will likely cinch the nomination. Not an earth-shattering conclusion, but that appears the most likely scenario.
This means Giuliani CANNOT be written off if he wins Florida. If he gets the aura of a winner around him, he’ll most likely perform well on Super Tuesday. If McCain wins Florida, however, and follows that up with a good-size number of victories on Super Tuesday, he will be the presumptive nominee.
I frankly cannot see a scenario where Huckabee wins the nomination, so for Romney, the best thing that could happen for him (following up on the very good thing for him that just happened with the Thompson withdrawal) would be for Huckabee to withdraw, so that he can claim the social conservative mantle by his lonesome.
Similarly, for McCain, Florida could be the knockout blow that gives him most of the Giuliani voters. Two things to watch for at this point: one, of course, is the polling in Florida, currently close enough to give hope to the camps of Romney, McCain, and Giuliani. The second is for any new polling that comes out over the next week or so with a beginning date of today or later, so that both the Thompson withdrawal and the Nevada and South Carolina results are factored in.
We don’t have any answers yet, but we’re starting to see the questions more clearly…
My analysis may not actually be correct, but I see Thompson as sort of the “wine track” conservative (note the number of conservative bloggers who support him, for instance) and Huckabee as the “beer track” conservative. (Obviously Huckabee is not an orthodox conservative, but it’s worth not overanalyzing how much the average voter thinks about these things.) I imagine Thompson supporters are not the sort of people who are interested in Huckabee, meaning they’ll be looking for a more cerebral conservative alternative. At this point, I would guess that’s Romney. So my prediction is that Romney is today’s big winner.
I think Ryan is probably correct about Thompson’s supporters, at least those north of the Mason-Dixon line. Most of his support there will probably go to Romney, but at least some of Thompson’s would be voters were national security hawks and would be more attracted to McCain. In the South, I think a good chunk of his support can transfer to Huckabee, provided he remains viable after Florida.
Which just goes to show that if Huckabee is serious about skipping Florida, his campaign is in even worse shape than anyone thought. I mean, Rudy has skipped a lot of states, but a Southern politician skipping Florida would be like Rudy skipping Connecticut or Romney skipping New Hampshire.
No one has pinned Giuliani down on critical foreign policy issues, besides those he’s offered to us: namely 9/11, homeland security reform, and missile defense.
My group is starting an online debating forum to pressure candidates to clarify their positions on important issues like nuclear terrorism and energy security. Join our debate at secureamericachallenge.org!
Well,
Come the election, it’s going to be hard for me to vote for any of the candidates. I just don’t see it. I contributed to Fred’s campaign because he seemed to echo my views. The others? Not so much
McCain is a deeply flawed candidate, a RINO trying to change his stripes. He helped author the McCain-Feingold act which was a slap to the 1st Ammendment. He supports amnesty for illegals, and back-stabbed the GOP with his cloack-room antics with the gang of 14. I am also a former Navy man, with over 5000 hours of combat aircrew time. I give props to McCain for his service, and his sacrifice. Beyond that, however, I find him repulsive to nearly all conservative principles.
Romney is interested in one thing, and one thing only: Romney. He will do and/or say whatever he believes the public wants in order to get himself elected. Would you support universal health care? Hillarycare? Romney does. In fact, he signed it into law in Massachussetts. Romney is Edwards and Bill Clinton rolled into one and painted with a GOP brush. If he were on fire, i wouldn’t cross the street to p!ss on him. I live in Maine. I saw first had the disaster that was his tenure in Massachussetts. No thank you.
Giulliani has my vote for leadership, which is what the primary duties of a President are. leading. However, his disdain for the 2nd Ammendment, and his willingness to bend the laws to achieve the results he sought in crime-fighting bother me greatly. Without his word in writing that he supports fully the 2nd Ammendment, I can’t vote for him either.
RonPaul? ’nuff said. We heed Ron Paul in the Oval office like we need to clone Hitler. There is enough bigotry and lunacy around without giving it legitimacy through the ballot box.
Sadly, barring some mircacle, I likely will stay home on election day. I have worked for the GOP for almost 40 years and I will no longer simply cast a vote for someone in order to keep someone else out of officve. I compromised and swallowed my pride and voted for Bush, but no more. I cannot in good faith cast a vote for a RINO. If the GOP can’t muster any true conservatives to it’s side, then perhaps it is time to let it die and start anew. At least with the Democrats controlling the White House we will be assured of betrayal and lies. We won’t have to be blindsided by RINOs pretending to be conservatives.
respects,
It’s a shame to hear about Fred. My family and I are very conservative and supported Thompsons pro-life ways and his determination to keep troops in Iraq. Tim: you seem to have some of the same beliefs I do. But when you are deciding our future, don’t walk out on the biggest election of our lifetime. Vote. It does matter. Thanks and God bless!