Informed Speculation

…to one of my all-time favorite bloggers, the always interesting and frequently hilarious Tim Blair from down under, as he undergoes major surgery after a diagnosis of cancer.  Tim, regardless of the outcome, stay upbeat and hopeful, and know that you’ve got people from literally every corner of the globe in YOUR corner…

…and I’m too tired to blog much, even though we have the big Michigan primary tomorrow (if you’re fortunate enough to not know what cedar fever is, count your blessings.  Austin is one of the worst cities in the country for allergy sufferers, and though it usually doesn’t get to me quite this bad, this [...]

Regardless of what happens in today’s NFC Divisional playoff game, the Dallas Cowboys just laid one of the most impressive drives in NFL history on the New York Giants.  20 plays, 90 yards, 10:28 off the clock…that’s nothing short of unbelievable…every coach’s dream, and something to warm the heart of this Cowboys fan…(and I’m no [...]

The real fun this Tuesday will be on the Republican side, as Mitt Romney tries to make a stand and stay in the race with a win in his home state.  There is no question that McCain has been enjoying a remarkably robust turnaround, but he faces an uphill climb in Michigan.  There have been [...]

A day after it snowed in Baghdad for the first time in 100 years, much to the delight of the locals, another equally improbable thing has been reported: real progress towards reconciliation by the Iraqi parliament. Iraq’s parliament voted Saturday to give jobs back to thousands of former supporters of Saddam Hussein’s Baath party who [...]

Those who waved (and continue to wave – see McGovern, George) the Lancet’s 600,000+ excess-Iraqi-deaths number around as a blunt instrument to strike down defenders of the Iraq War had one advantage over us: they could point to the ‘statistically sound’ methodology and fall back on arcane statistical niceties while we could only say “It’s [...]

To the surprise of no one, Bill Richardson has left the race for the 2008 Democratic nomination. Now, I’m no spring chicken, and for the last several election cycles, Bill Richardson’s name has been thrown in the hat for the Democratic nomination.  May it never be so again. The guy’s got credentials.  Okay, we all [...]

Quick takes on the road ahead: Romney must win Michigan.  Period.  Polls show him ahead of McCain, but narrowly, and McCain has the momentum. Clinton has a huge lead in Nevada, and has regained the upper hand in the Democratic race.  Overnight, the narrative has changed completely for the donkeys.  Huckabee has a large lead [...]

9% of precincts in, Hillary leads Obama by 37-36(!), McCain over Romney 37-28%… UPDATE 7:04 p.m.: Hillary up by 3% now with 11% in – if she wins this, and she may very well, it just goes to show that nothing that anyone in the pundit class says (myself included) means much of anything.  Sigh…I’m not [...]

So says the Washington Post editorial board: AT SATURDAY’S New Hampshire debate, Democratic candidates were confronted with a question that they have been ducking for some time: Can they concede that the “surge” of U.S. troops in Iraq has worked? All of them vehemently opposed the troop increase when President Bush proposed it a year [...]

I notice my old blog is getting a lot of hits from people searching for Barack Obama’s resume.  They’re landing on the old Blogger page, where my hopelessly out-of-date candidate profile (not updated since July of 2005) resides. In an attempt to get some of that traffic over here on the more up-to-date blog, here is [...]

Obama’s momentum is undeniably real, and the wear is starting to show in the Hillary camp – and with Hillary herself.  The vote in New Hampshire seems a foregone conclusion – but it’s wrong to say that Hillary is out with a loss.  In fact, she still polls comfortably ahead in such delegate-rich states as [...]

Those looking to read the tea leaves for Tuesday’s New Hampshire vote are asking if the Iowa victories of Obama and Huckabee have wings.  In Obama’s case, the answer appears to be yes.  Obama is tied, trailing by one, or leading by as much as 12 in every major poll in New Hampshire taken after [...]

For some reason, no one gives a damn about the Wyoming caucuses.  You might not even know they happened today.  For the GOP, they did – and Mitt Romney won. Now, don’t say you never learned anything here…

I was somewhat excited to see that National Journal, hardly a voice of the right wing, was taking on the Lancet study of 2006 that claimed that Iraq had suffered 179.63 million excess deaths because of the U.S. invasion (okay, well, about 700,000).  I never believed it then, and I don’t believe it now. Ultimately, [...]

It couldn’t be closer on the Democratic side, but Huckabee is going to win Iowa going away on the Republican side (that’s one prediction I missed – the other, that Fred Thompson would not finish third, is still in doubt, though Thompson is holding on to third by a thin margin at the moment)…more later… [...]

…not because he will finish in the top three in Iowa (he won’t), but because he will drop out of the race, reports the Politico, and endorse…John McCain, who suddenly is looking like a real candidate again (Intrade, for the first time in this race, has Giuliani running second, behind…yep, John McCain)…very intriguing storyline….

Tomorrow is the day the 2008 presidential campaign officially kicks off, in the always-odd spectacle of a caucus, not a primary.  Truth be told, though I earlier ventured a prediction of Romney and Hillary, this one is a toss-up on both sides.  The Democratic race in particular could go to Hillary, Edwards, or Obama, and [...]

And go Red Raiders…I have a number of resolutions this year, but they are all of a personal nature, as you might expect, and thus, while of intense interest to me, they would be of little moment to you. I hope you are enjoying your day off, and if you have nothing to do for [...]