All Eyes On The California Prize
As we celebrate Super (Bowl) Sunday on the way to Super Tuesday, one state stands head and shoulders above the rest. The Golden State is the nation’s most populous, and this year, it represents the last best hope for Mitt Romney, and to a lesser extent, Barack Obama. Both underdogs can point to recent polling in saying that California is still very much in play. The latest Zogby poll has Romney up by 3 (though no other recent poll confirms that result) and Obama by 4 (another outlier).
McCain and his supporters have perhaps been a bit too hasty in declaring the race over. For example, McCain sounded pretty cocky this weekend (italics mine):
McCain said he’d assess the overall political situation after Tuesday, but then his confidence came through again.
“I assume that I will get the nomination of the party. I assume unifying our party is a very critical item and I believe we can do that and get everybody together and working together. And I’m confident I can do that.”
The problem is that, even with all of his advantages in the wake of his crucial Florida victory, McCain still faces a very determined conservative backlash that is uniting behind Romney…and despite earlier reports that Romney wouldn’t be buying ads on Super Tuesday, he has spent a considerable sum on advertising in certain key states, most especially California.
The upshot? That wise old sage Yogi Berra had it right – it ain’t over ’til it’s over. McCain remains the prohibitive favorite (even if Romney does pull out California, McCain is up by huge margins in the Northeast, including the crucial state of New York, while Huckabee will drain Romney votes in the South and put McCain in the winner’s circle in some states he might not otherwise carry) – but it’s not a done deal – yet…
My own unscientific observations here in Silicon Valley are lots of Obama posters and bumper stickers, and few if any for Hillary. My guess is that Obama wins big on Tuesday. Perhaps this is wishful thinking — I’ll vote for him — but he seems to have the momentum to beat Hillary by a surprisingly wide margin.
Yeah, but keep in mind that if lawn signs and posters were the measure, Ron Paul would be the next president…
If lawn signs and posters were the measure, Ron Paul is ALREADY our President
Given the wacky proportional representation scheme the Democrats are using, it’s not going to be easy for either candidate to “win big”. It’s all going to be like the big win in Iowa (which got Obama 16 delegates and Hillary 14 delegates) or the one in Nevada (which got Obama 13 delegates and Hillary 12 delegates). It just can’t add up to a landslide unless one of them can break 70% in the popular vote. (The SF Chronicle has a good piece on this…)
But, I agree. The polls look like Obama might edge out Hillary in California. Although it won’t make a huge difference delegate-wise, it’s a big morale and press-coverage boost, and will translate into a big fundraising boost.
Clint’s right, although I have to say that Obama will need to win by more than 5 points nationally to win the majority of the delegates.
The reason is that Obama tends to do very well with black voters and white voters who live in upscale, predominately white areas. I suspect that applies to quite a few places in the silicon valley, but it doesn’t apply to any districts in the Central Valley that I can think of. And here in So.Cal. I can only think of Henry Waxman’s district (which encompasses Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, Westwood, Cheviot Hills, Pico-Robertson & a few other trendy areas), and John Campbell’s (which encompasses Newport Beach and the mass of tract homes built in south OC’s foothills). I can’t think of any majority black congressional districts any more — even areas like Inglewood and Compton are majority latino these days. Even my district (Ed Royce’s, which includes less trendy but still wealthy north OC cities like Fullerton and Yorba Linda) is probably a weak bet for Obama, as it includes cities with sizeable hispanic populations.
I didn’t mean Obama needs to win nationally by 5 points, I meant he needs to win Cal by 5 points or more to get a majority of delegates. My bad.
An interesting question will be how the pundits on CNN call these races…
Are they going to be doing complicated delegate calculations, or just calling states for candidates and coloring in the map like on election night? If the latter, Obama gets a huge publicity/fundraising boost for a 1% win in California even if he doesn’t get a majority of the California delegates. (Just like they called Nevada a win for Hillary, even though she won fewer delegates…)
I’m also wondering how well Obama has to do before many of the “superdelegates” start switching over to him — I really don’t think they want to give the nomination to Hillary in a way that looks like party functionaries are overruling the primary voters…
I’m guessing they will simply report the winner. This is the West Coast, after all, which means that the talking heads will already be up past their bedtime when the polls close here (11 am EST, if I’m not mistaken) and the last thing they want to do is spend a couple of hours analyzing each congressional district and adding up the delegates. Most likely they will declare a winner by midnight (9 pm PST) and be done with it.
For this reason, I think Romney could benefit from a win here, even if it matters little in the delegate count. Even with McCain and his problems with the base, there is going to be a push in the party to rally around the nominee if the result isn’t close and Romney needs to create the impression that the race still could go either way. And of the 3 big states (Cal/ NY & Ill) this is the only one that he has a chance of doing so.
I think that Mitt will win California and actually either win Super Tuesday or come in a very close second place. John McCain is not a true conservative and he is losing some momentum.
Sean P., why do you assume that if a community has a large hispanic population, that such would translate into an ‘automatic’ win for Hillary? Barack spends far more time on the campaign trail talking about an inclusive “united” America than Hillary does, and I don’t personally perceive a great love of Hillary among hispanics per se….
I thot Yogi said, “Never assume, or you’ll make an ass out of u & me”.
#10, because this is in line with the exit poll results in Nevada, the only contested Democratic contest thus far with a significant hispanic vote. Good enough?