That wise old sage Yogi Berra had it right – it ain’t over ’til it’s over.

I thot Yogi said, “Never assume, or you’ll make an ass out of u & me”.

For this reason, I think Romney could benefit from a win here, even if it matters little in the delegate count. Even with McCain and his problems with the base, there is going to be a push in the party to rally around the nominee if the result isn’t close and Romney needs to create the impression that the race still could go either way. And of the 3 big states (Cal/ NY & Ill) this is the only one that he has a chance of doing so.

Are they going to be doing complicated delegate calculations, or just calling states for candidates and coloring in the map like on election night? If the latter, Obama gets a huge publicity/fundraising boost for a 1% win in California even if he doesn’t get a majority of the California delegates. (Just like they called Nevada a win for Hillary, even though she won fewer delegates…)

I’m also wondering how well Obama has to do before many of the “superdelegates” start switching over to him — I really don’t think they want to give the nomination to Hillary in a way that looks like party functionaries are overruling the primary voters…

The reason is that Obama tends to do very well with black voters and white voters who live in upscale, predominately white areas. I suspect that applies to quite a few places in the silicon valley, but it doesn’t apply to any districts in the Central Valley that I can think of. And here in So.Cal. I can only think of Henry Waxman’s district (which encompasses Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, Westwood, Cheviot Hills, Pico-Robertson & a few other trendy areas), and John Campbell’s (which encompasses Newport Beach and the mass of tract homes built in south OC’s foothills). I can’t think of any majority black congressional districts any more — even areas like Inglewood and Compton are majority latino these days. Even my district (Ed Royce’s, which includes less trendy but still wealthy north OC cities like Fullerton and Yorba Linda) is probably a weak bet for Obama, as it includes cities with sizeable hispanic populations.

But, I agree. The polls look like Obama might edge out Hillary in California. Although it won’t make a huge difference delegate-wise, it’s a big morale and press-coverage boost, and will translate into a big fundraising boost.