Is Obama The Frontrunner?
The Democratic contest is hard to call at the moment because of the quasi-mystical b.s. that is starting to float around the Obama candidacy, but there are signs that Hillary is sweating it. For starters, she just axed her campaign manager – surely never a sign that things are going swimmingly. Then, of course, there is the Obama weekend sweep (Maine hasn’t been declared yet, but it looks to be heading Obama’s way). And, it goes without saying, there is the Obama fundraising prowess (though Hillary has raised a fortune since Super Tuesday, as well).
Intrade has Obama a huge favorite at the moment to not only win the nomination but the presidency (as I’ve stated before, Intrade is overrated for predictive power but damn near unbeatable at providing a snapshot of current sentiment). And, of course, there is the matter of the superdelegates, of which much ink has been spilt and much, much more will be. Top it all off with a palpable longing by most of the pundits and bloggers for Obama to be the nominee, and you’ve got a pretty solid case that Clinton is in trouble.
So why aren’t I buying it yet? For one thing, if ’ifs’ and ‘buts’ were candies and nuts, we’d all have a Merry Christmas. Wanting Obama to vanquish the Clinton beast is not the same as seeing it come to pass. Second, Obama is in a very favorable period in the primary calendar. And there’s the superdelegate thing, which strongly favors Clinton by virtue of her ex-president husband. Had Obama managed to pull off California, I might be more convinced he can make it all the way. Right now, though, I’m still uncertain as to who REALLY is the Democratic frontrunner.
One thing is undeniable, however: Obama has a huge head of steam, and he’s very, very close to reaching that point where momentum sweeps aside all obstacles. Hillary has to get it together, and quickly…and she’s certainly capable of doing so. What Obama needs to do is continue to win, convincingly, virtually everywhere, so that the superdelegates look like they’re ’stealing the nomination’ if they give it to Clinton.
Personal feelings are mixed. There is an undeniably exciting vibe around Obama, as people consider the fact that an African-American really has an excellent chance of being the next President of the United States. I hate identity politics, but to deny the historical nature of that statement is to be a political ostrich. However, as a Republican, it goes without saying that I’d rather run against Hillary. The contrast between the young, vibrant Obama and the old warrior McCain is not going to be a very favorable one for my side should it come to that…
If McCain has taught us anything in this race its that old dogs still have some bite, even when they are down. Yeah Obama has momentum and some other advantages but the Clintons are tough and clever. We can expect to see some double talking dirty tricks in the next few weeks designed to criple Obama. My guess is that they will work. And yes I just called McCain and Hillary old dogs.
Hopelessly vague, CKS. You too, Mark. I understand that y’all think Hillary’s still got tricks up her sleeve, but I’d be interested to see what you think the actual method of her win would look like. Otherwise, I can’t help but conclude that you’re doing a bit of shilling for the candidate you’d admittedly rather face.
I wonder if anyone else sees parallels between Obama and Tiger Woods. Both are trail-blazers who at the top of their fields, both of which have always been dominated by whites. Both handle themselves very well, and are the personification of grace under pressure. Both go out of their way to avoid making being black the core of their public persona — they act (and hence are perceived) much differently than, say, Muhammad Ali or Charles Rangel.
Even those who would never vote for Obama would, I think, give him credit for being a very positive force in American politics, just as it is hard to imagine a better role model in sports than Tiger (even if you think Mickelson is more exciting or you root for Craig Stadler because you want to see fat old guys win sometimes). I think we’re very lucky to have both of them around.
Fargus, get real. I’m shilling for Hillary? That’ll be the day. Who do YOU think the superdelegates will favor? I’m not making this up, it’s all over the major news media and the blogs…look, Obama has a shot, but if it’s close in the delegate count, Hillary is gonna take it. He’s got to make it so lopsided that the superdelegates HAVE to vote for him or look like shills themselves…
Peter, Obama is a superstar, there is no doubt…he’s still a little on the vague side for my tastes, but I don’t blame him. Taking a position on anything controversial can be hazardous for your political health…
Vague can work in American politics. Look at Reagan’s 1980 campaign — all broad strokes, hope and change, lower taxes and a strong national defense.
I think Maine was big. Hillary really needed it to help stunt Obama’s “momentum” (the way she tried to do with Florida after South Carolina) — to give her a better shot in Virginia.
If Obama goes on to multidigit leads in all the Potomac Primaries… Hillary’s in serious trouble.
If she loses Wisconsin as well…. she’ll have serious trouble keeping her strength in Ohio and Texas during the long two weeks without any new movement. And if she doesn’t win either of those… even Hillary Clinton will have to admit defeat.
I just don’t see the “superdelegates” who are unwilling to pick sides now suddenly coming in overwhelmingly in her favor when she’s losing steam. Her big advantage in superdelegates is already there in the 213 to 139 RCP lists as declared — an advantage which as of the Maine primary is no longer sufficient to make up for her deficit in normal delegates. Those numbers are just going to keep looking worse, and Obama more inevitable.
March 4th is an awfully long ways away — it’s 22 more days. Compare to 22 days ago — after Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. In campaign time, that was a lifetime ago.
Hillary could still pull it out — never count a Clinton out — but it’s going to take something big.
Any comment about the ganes going on in Washington state?
If McCain doesn’t step in his nomination will look like a fraud.
Michael, obviously you are referring to the sudden stoppage of results reporting at 87%. It was indeed a bit odd (I’m one of those who kept hitting refresh waiting for a new update, then all of a sudden Mccain was declared the winner with only a 2% lead). There sure must be a backstory, but I doubt very seriously it involves the McCain campaign. If any readers know of any good links for what happened in Washington, share with us, please…
Some links gathered from the internets:
State GOP Chair, Luke Esser, reluctantly agrees to resume counting ballots.
By some cosmic coincidence, Esser is a protegé of McCain’s Washington Campaign Chair. He is probably now regretting some of his youthful exuberances: a young Luke Esser on vote suppression. But, then, the whole process used in the Washington State GOP Caucuses is so baroque that one is hard-pressed to dinstinguish an honest vote count from a crooked one.
Very entertaining. The Democrats could learn a thing or two…
Thanks, Jacques…yeah, the Washington thing is very weird. I don’t blame Huckabee for challenging, but if Esser is cooking the books, he’s certainly not doing his candidate any favors…dumber things have been done, though, so maybe so…
The are times that I think that getting involved in politics lowers your intelligence by 30 percent.
It is move that hurts McCain, who probably won.
The vote is close so even if McCain is ahead, the remaining districts are known McCain districts, the count needed to be completed,
The problem now is that many will believe outcome corrupted even with the full count going to McCain.
A very dumb move.
Washington has a strange history of this — the last gubernatorial election was quite extraordinary.
Michael, you nailed it…the full count shows McCain did win (or at least the now 96% complete count) – but by declaring it when it was so close with 13% of the vote left uncounted, Huckabee can ride this story to keep his name in the headlines, particularly since he didn’t pick up anything tonight…