Comments on: Is Obama The Frontrunner? http://informedspeculation.com/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/ Refunds Cheerfully Given To All Who Disagree Wed, 17 Mar 2010 23:42:23 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Mark http://informedspeculation.com/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/comment-page-1/#comment-452959 Mark Wed, 13 Feb 2008 04:17:51 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/#comment-452959 Michael, you nailed it...the full count shows McCain did win (or at least the now 96% complete count) - but by declaring it when it was so close with 13% of the vote left uncounted, Huckabee can ride this story to keep his name in the headlines, particularly since he didn't pick up anything tonight... Michael, you nailed it…the full count shows McCain did win (or at least the now 96% complete count) – but by declaring it when it was so close with 13% of the vote left uncounted, Huckabee can ride this story to keep his name in the headlines, particularly since he didn’t pick up anything tonight…

]]> By: Clint http://informedspeculation.com/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/comment-page-1/#comment-452679 Clint Tue, 12 Feb 2008 21:43:45 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/#comment-452679 Washington has a strange history of this -- the last gubernatorial election was <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2004" rel="nofollow">quite extraordinary</a>. Washington has a strange history of this — the last gubernatorial election was quite extraordinary.

]]> By: Michael http://informedspeculation.com/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/comment-page-1/#comment-452442 Michael Tue, 12 Feb 2008 16:11:20 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/#comment-452442 The are times that I think that getting involved in politics lowers your intelligence by 30 percent. It is move that hurts McCain, who probably won. The vote is close so even if McCain is ahead, the remaining districts are known McCain districts, the count needed to be completed, The problem now is that many will believe outcome corrupted even with the full count going to McCain. A very dumb move. The are times that I think that getting involved in politics lowers your intelligence by 30 percent.

It is move that hurts McCain, who probably won.
The vote is close so even if McCain is ahead, the remaining districts are known McCain districts, the count needed to be completed,

The problem now is that many will believe outcome corrupted even with the full count going to McCain.
A very dumb move.

]]> By: Mark http://informedspeculation.com/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/comment-page-1/#comment-452150 Mark Tue, 12 Feb 2008 04:40:33 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/#comment-452150 Thanks, Jacques...yeah, the Washington thing is very weird. I don't blame Huckabee for challenging, but if Esser is cooking the books, he's certainly not doing his candidate any favors...dumber things have been done, though, so maybe so... Thanks, Jacques…yeah, the Washington thing is very weird. I don’t blame Huckabee for challenging, but if Esser is cooking the books, he’s certainly not doing his candidate any favors…dumber things have been done, though, so maybe so…

]]> By: Jacques Distler http://informedspeculation.com/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/comment-page-1/#comment-452146 Jacques Distler Tue, 12 Feb 2008 04:24:52 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/#comment-452146 Some links gathered from the internets: <a href='http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2004175292_webhuckabee10.html' rel="nofollow">State GOP Chair, Luke Esser, reluctantly agrees to resume counting ballots.</a> <blockquote>Esser said this afternoon that the Republican Party was going to try to get as "close as we can to 100 percent" in the vote count</blockquote> By some cosmic coincidence, <a href='http://www.horsesass.org/?p=4280' rel="nofollow">Esser is a protegé of McCain's Washington Campaign Chair</a>. He is probably now regretting some of his youthful exuberances: <a href='http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/177975.php' rel="nofollow">a young Luke Esser on vote suppression</a>. But, then, the whole process used in the Washington State GOP Caucuses is <a href='http://www.king5.com/topstories/stories/NW_021108POL_huckabee_disputes_SW.b1b974e7.html' rel="nofollow">so baroque</a> that one is hard-pressed to dinstinguish an honest vote count from a crooked one. Very entertaining. The Democrats could learn a thing or two... Some links gathered from the internets:

State GOP Chair, Luke Esser, reluctantly agrees to resume counting ballots.

Esser said this afternoon that the Republican Party was going to try to get as “close as we can to 100 percent” in the vote count

By some cosmic coincidence, Esser is a protegé of McCain’s Washington Campaign Chair. He is probably now regretting some of his youthful exuberances: a young Luke Esser on vote suppression. But, then, the whole process used in the Washington State GOP Caucuses is so baroque that one is hard-pressed to dinstinguish an honest vote count from a crooked one.

Very entertaining. The Democrats could learn a thing or two…

]]> By: Mark http://informedspeculation.com/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/comment-page-1/#comment-452105 Mark Tue, 12 Feb 2008 01:56:16 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/#comment-452105 Michael, obviously you are referring to the sudden stoppage of results reporting at 87%. It was indeed a bit odd (I'm one of those who kept hitting refresh waiting for a new update, then all of a sudden Mccain was declared the winner with only a 2% lead). There sure must be a backstory, but I doubt very seriously it involves the McCain campaign. If any readers know of any good links for what happened in Washington, share with us, please... Michael, obviously you are referring to the sudden stoppage of results reporting at 87%. It was indeed a bit odd (I’m one of those who kept hitting refresh waiting for a new update, then all of a sudden Mccain was declared the winner with only a 2% lead). There sure must be a backstory, but I doubt very seriously it involves the McCain campaign. If any readers know of any good links for what happened in Washington, share with us, please…

]]> By: Michael http://informedspeculation.com/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/comment-page-1/#comment-452068 Michael Tue, 12 Feb 2008 00:23:44 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/#comment-452068 Any comment about the ganes going on in Washington state? If McCain doesn't step in his nomination will look like a fraud. Any comment about the ganes going on in Washington state?
If McCain doesn’t step in his nomination will look like a fraud.

]]> By: Clint http://informedspeculation.com/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/comment-page-1/#comment-451448 Clint Mon, 11 Feb 2008 06:18:21 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/#comment-451448 Vague can work in American politics. Look at Reagan's 1980 campaign -- all broad strokes, hope and change, lower taxes and a strong national defense. I think Maine was big. Hillary really needed it to help stunt Obama's "momentum" (the way she tried to do with Florida after South Carolina) -- to give her a better shot in Virginia. If Obama goes on to multidigit leads in all the Potomac Primaries... Hillary's in serious trouble. If she loses Wisconsin as well.... she'll have serious trouble keeping her strength in Ohio and Texas during the long two weeks without any new movement. And if she doesn't win either of those... even Hillary Clinton will have to admit defeat. I just don't see the "superdelegates" who are unwilling to pick sides now suddenly coming in overwhelmingly in her favor when she's losing steam. Her big advantage in superdelegates is already there in the 213 to 139 RCP lists as declared -- an advantage which as of the Maine primary is no longer sufficient to make up for her deficit in normal delegates. Those numbers are just going to keep looking worse, and Obama more inevitable. March 4th is an awfully long ways away -- it's 22 more days. Compare to 22 days ago -- after Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. In campaign time, that was a lifetime ago. Hillary could still pull it out -- never count a Clinton out -- but it's going to take something big. Vague can work in American politics. Look at Reagan’s 1980 campaign — all broad strokes, hope and change, lower taxes and a strong national defense.

I think Maine was big. Hillary really needed it to help stunt Obama’s “momentum” (the way she tried to do with Florida after South Carolina) — to give her a better shot in Virginia.

If Obama goes on to multidigit leads in all the Potomac Primaries… Hillary’s in serious trouble.

If she loses Wisconsin as well…. she’ll have serious trouble keeping her strength in Ohio and Texas during the long two weeks without any new movement. And if she doesn’t win either of those… even Hillary Clinton will have to admit defeat.

I just don’t see the “superdelegates” who are unwilling to pick sides now suddenly coming in overwhelmingly in her favor when she’s losing steam. Her big advantage in superdelegates is already there in the 213 to 139 RCP lists as declared — an advantage which as of the Maine primary is no longer sufficient to make up for her deficit in normal delegates. Those numbers are just going to keep looking worse, and Obama more inevitable.

March 4th is an awfully long ways away — it’s 22 more days. Compare to 22 days ago — after Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. In campaign time, that was a lifetime ago.

Hillary could still pull it out — never count a Clinton out — but it’s going to take something big.

]]> By: Mark http://informedspeculation.com/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/comment-page-1/#comment-451372 Mark Mon, 11 Feb 2008 04:59:15 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/#comment-451372 Peter, Obama is a superstar, there is no doubt...he's still a little on the vague side for my tastes, but I don't blame him. Taking a position on anything controversial can be hazardous for your political health... Peter, Obama is a superstar, there is no doubt…he’s still a little on the vague side for my tastes, but I don’t blame him. Taking a position on anything controversial can be hazardous for your political health…

]]> By: Mark http://informedspeculation.com/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/comment-page-1/#comment-451367 Mark Mon, 11 Feb 2008 04:49:22 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/02/10/is-obama-the-frontrunner/#comment-451367 Fargus, get real. I'm shilling for Hillary? That'll be the day. Who do YOU think the superdelegates will favor? I'm not making this up, it's all over the major news media and the blogs...look, Obama has a shot, but if it's close in the delegate count, Hillary is gonna take it. He's got to make it so lopsided that the superdelegates HAVE to vote for him or look like shills themselves... Fargus, get real. I’m shilling for Hillary? That’ll be the day. Who do YOU think the superdelegates will favor? I’m not making this up, it’s all over the major news media and the blogs…look, Obama has a shot, but if it’s close in the delegate count, Hillary is gonna take it. He’s got to make it so lopsided that the superdelegates HAVE to vote for him or look like shills themselves…

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