Informed Speculation

My refusal to believe that Barack Obama has wrapped up the Democratic nomination at this point has led one long-time reader to call me a shill for Hillary(!).  John Dickerson backs up my ill-defined sense that Hillary may yet pull this thing out with some reasoned analysis:

1. Clinton has a floor: Despite Obama’s successes, he has been unable to make significant inroads with key voting blocs. Women, Latinos, and less-prosperous voters all have continued to support Clinton. Obama is the candidate who is supposed to have the crazed supporters, but when the Washington Post recently asked Democratic voters how adamantly they supported their candidate, it was Clinton whose troops were more committed.

These are the groups that helped sustain Clinton in big states on Super Tuesday after Obama won in Iowa and South Carolina. Obama has had a few scattered wins among them (leading with women in Iowa and Maine), but he has not had great success reaching into these still-for-Clinton groups.

Clinton’s support among these key demographics also provides her with her electability argument as she tries to make the case that Obama is a modern-day George McGovern—the pet rock of the party’s wealthy liberal wing. “How can we have a nominee who can’t win the votes of working-class people?” says one Clinton strategist. It’s a good question.

Clinton is banking on her loyal constituencies for her comeback day on March 4, where she hopes working-class whites in Ohio and Latinos in Texas will give her victories. An early test of whether blue collar voters are holding for Clinton might come in pockets of Wisconsin, which votes next week. The college towns will go for Obama, but much of the state resembles Ohio. These areas should back Clinton. If not, she’s in trouble.

There are two other excellent points made, but you’ll have to click through to read them…