Well, “by any margin” I guess I meant more than 1% but less than a blow out.

I take your point but she does not have to catch Obama, she just has to keep it close enough to provide cover to the superdelegates. She then has an argument (assuming it plays out) that she won all the big states [California, NY, Ohio, Pennslyvania, Florida, Texas, Michigan, New Jersey] except for Illinois and that Obama won alot of undemocratic caucuses. In other words, provide enough smoke that the superdelegates, if so inclined, can vote for her without too much pain.

I am not saying this is a sure fireway to win but it provides a path.

Now, will the nomination be worth it if she keeps a sizable % of Obama people home? That is a different question.

Bob-

If she only wins by 1%, they’ll just split the delegates and she won’t make up any real ground in the delegate count. She has to win them big. And she hasn’t won any states big(except Arkansas and Oklahoma). Add in the fact that Texas allots a third of its delegates by Caucus — a medium which favors Obama — and it doesn’t look good for Hillary, despite the polls.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/obama_leads_in_the_total_popul.php

As for popular vote, Obama’s lead is so large that he is still in the lead if you count both Florida (where he didn’t campaign) and Michigan (where his name wasn’t even on the ballot and, hence, he got 0 votes). That will get closer if Hillary wins in Texas and Ohio, but first she has to actually win them.

My dad said he saw being interviewed who stated that it didn’t matter if his state, congressional district, county, or city voted for Obama; he would be voting for Hillary.

I do not think that the Dems can, in the end, not seat Michigan and Florida.

Obama is making an error to talk like this. He should still paint himself as the underdog. Overdogs are not doing so well this year.

Obama’s had a really nice run, and should knock up two more wins come Tuesday. In order to end the primary on March 4th, he needs to keep building strength in Texas and Ohio, and deny Hillary her “firewall”. His biggest advantage at the moment is that for an entire (short) month, he will have all the wins, and will begin to appear inevitable. He and his campaign are working hard to strengthen that appearance because it makes it more likely to be true — the classic self-fulfilling prophecy of political campaign.

Even better than the campaign spin was Obama’s victory speech after the Potomac primaries — he barely mentioned Hillary. It was all looking forward to the national campaign against McCain. He never said Hillary was done, he just assumed it. Brilliant.

(Also… the math is pretty much true — Hillary hasn’t blown Obama away by large margins anywhere but Arkansas and Oklahoma, and Obama’s pulled out large double-digit victories all over the place. And she can’t beat him without either putting up such large double-digit numbers in some of the remaining large states or else winning a stronger majority in the superdelegates than she has been so far. It’s not over — but it’s looking grim for the Clintons.)