Hillary Will Withdraw, Eventually…
…but not any time soon. She is a Clinton, she plays tough, she has a lot of pride, and she feels entitled to the nomination. But mark my words, she WILL withdraw.
There is simply no choice. Every analysis I have seen indicates that Barack Obama will lead the delegate race going into the convention. This holds true even if Hillary gets a do-over in Michigan and Florida. And the Democratic Party simply cannot afford the long-term alienation that would result from passing over the first African-American to lay claim to a major party’s nomination for the presidency.
It simply cannot happen. All the other analysis is dead weight. This is the only fact that matters. The black community would not forget, not would it forgive, such a slight. And rightly so. I hate identity politics with a passion…but facts are facts.
Bottom line – there is a lot of drama yet to come – but Barack Obama will face John McCain for the presidency in November. Count on it…
And what, pray tell, would the “black community” do to express their displeasure and impose consequences on the Democrat party for such a “slight”? Vote Republican? Stay home? So what?
The Democrats (the party) will do what they need to do to put themselves in what they judge to be their best position to win in November. If the delegate count is close heading in to the convention then Hillary has a very strong chance to be the nominee. If she is chosen look for Obama to be the VP.
I’ve heard it suggested that if Hillary gets the nomination, instead of picking Obama as her VP — a bad idea because he would likely be a competitor in 2012 and would stand to profit from her misfortune — she should pick Harold Ford, Jr. (former TN congressman and failed Senate candidate and current chairman of the DLC), who is younger, more moderate and more comely than Obama to make amends with the black voters.
too many steves, how do you, as a Democratic leader, deny the nomination to a member of one of your most steadfast constituencies when he is ahead in the both the delegate count and the popular vote?
I tell you, it can’t be done. It simply cannot happen.
And it won’t…
It’s the legitimacy question – it raises the issue of disenfranchisement. Here’s Michael Barone:
I’ve heard it floated that, ultimately, both Obama and Clinton being fundamentally unelectable, the convention will end up being a “brokered” one and someone else (Gore maybe?) will be chosen.
Not being a particularly politically smart person, I don’t know what to make of this.
Well, Eleanor Clift is one person who has talked about that possibility, but I just don’t see it. If party insiders can choose the nominee, what’s the point of all this primary and caucus nonsense, anyway?…
I realize that I am being dogmatic, and dismissive of the superdelegate process…but my gut feeling is that people won’t stand for Obama not being the nominee under the present circumstances. Hell, it will make ME mad (and I bet I’m not the only Republican who will feel that way).
Now, if I wanted to be a good partisan, I would root for Hillary, because she is so much more attractive a candidate (for Republican to run against)…but Obama has earned his party’s nomination, for better or worse, barring a collapse of historic proportions…
Obama will be the nominee. That’s ok, it just frees up Clinton to be McCain’s VP.
Well, Mark, as things look today your prediction is perfectly reasonable and, I dare say, likely. But if any of the assumptions change, and not much change is needed, then I think the likely scenario changes dramatically. If Obama takes a few more knocks like he had in the last few weeks, if Hillary continues to hang tough by winning a few more important states, then I think she could become the nominee. How many of those caucus states that Obama has won will go for the Democrat in the general election? If the judgment is: not many, then of what electoral value are his wins there? Don’t people see Ohio and Florida still as pivotal states in the November election?
I can see the super delegates doing that sort of math and coming up with Hillary as their best choice.
tms: It’s not that Hillary doesn’t have a strong case – she does…it’s just that Obama’s is stronger still…
Mark makes a good argument and it may well play out that way (although tms is correct in that there’s still a loo-oong way to go); Iowa was just 8 weeks ago – it seems forever.
However, Obama’s assumed win over HRC would ensure a D loss in the general election. Externally, he’s too inexperienced on the national stage to last through the white-hot intensity of a GE campaign without making the slips that will allow everyone to see behind the mask – a hyperpartisan social uber-liberal. Internally, the Clinton’s know that an Obama win will write finis to any hopes they may have for returning to center stage. Obama would sweeep the Clinton minions from the Party. HRC’s only hope will be to sabotage Obama’s campaign, which will let the Clinton’s maintain their chokehold over the Party and allow her to run again in 4 years making the claim, ‘We told you he couldn’t win, but I stepped aside for the good of the Party. Now, it’s REALLY my turn’. Count on it – if Obama’s the nominee, the Clinton’s will be working in parallel with McCain to ensure Obama’s defeat.
Mark is right on this one unless one of two things happen. One, something crazy in the Obama camp (dead girl, live boy). Two, Clinton manages to win the popular vote – this would make a more legitimate claim for her. Most of the other speculation is based on the old Clinton Derangement Syndrome; however, many of you are having fun with it, so enjoy.
Barack Obama as Huey Long? Sounds pretty unlikely to me.
tms: “How many of those caucus states that Obama has won will go for the Democrat in the general election?”
The problem with this argument is that you then have to count out the states that will definitely go Democrat in November (like Hillary’s big claims of New York and California…) as well as other probably safe Republican states like Texas.
At the end of the day you can argue that whoever can win Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio will win the election… but…
I just don’t see it without a popular vote win, and I don’t think she gets that. Obama should pick up enough votes in Mississippi and North Carolina to counter the votes she’ll pick up in Pennsylvania.
Also… for more substantive speculation as to November’s electoral math… SurveyUSA has just done a 50-state poll for each of the possible match-ups and posted the full results, and electoral math. (Link: http://www.surveyusa.com/) It’s probably both too early and too imprecise, but it’s a fascinating starting point nonetheless.
For example, they put Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Virginia and North Dakota all as Obama states that would go McCain against Hillary, and New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arkansas as Hillary states that would go McCain against Obama.
Hillary won’t drop out. Possibly ever.
Certainly not until at least after the second ballot at the convention.
My prediction? She wins Pennsylvania. She wins a re-run Michigan primary. Florida is not re-run but she wrangles the DNC into accepting her delegates from there. The difference here is that Obama wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan. He was in Florida and had just as much chance to win delegates as she did. Depending on other events, she may actually go into the convention with a near tie or even a lead in delegates. She currently leads in PLEO’s, and would likely overtake Obama in popular vote should my predictions come to pass.
I would be extremely surprised in the end if my prediction on how Florida and Michigan are handled don’t turn out to be 100% correct.
In the end, a battle between McCain and Obama would turn on youth versus experience. Obama’s campaign has already been victim to several mistakes of inexperience. None of them terminal–yet. However, quantity eventually overrides quality, and the PLEOs will leave him in droves if he makes many more missteps between now and the convention. However, avoiding missteps and showing that along with youth comes energy, enthusiasm, new ideas, charm and charisma, and Hillary (and eventually McCain) faces the opposite problem.
Now, why under these circumstances would she even consider dropping out?
It’s highly unlikely that Hillary would overtake Obama in either popular vote or delegate count even with the Michigan and Florida do-evers. Yes, she will win Pennsylvania – she has no equal at exploiting the economic fears of blue-collar unionists. But the fundamental quandary will remain – how can the Democratic Party overlook the popular vote leader and the delegate count leader without alienating huge chunks of its constituency for a decade or more?…
The problem for Obama is his inability to deliver the big swing states. He is (and will be painted by the GOP) and fairly left leaning liberal. Particularly with the damage Hillary is inflicting on him now, he could easily repeat McGovern in ’72 and get destroyed. If I were a Democrat both of these candidates would worry me.
[...] was my official write-off of Hillary Clinton on March 8th: Every analysis I have seen indicates that Barack Obama will lead the delegate race going into the [...]