Certainly not until at least after the second ballot at the convention.

My prediction? She wins Pennsylvania. She wins a re-run Michigan primary. Florida is not re-run but she wrangles the DNC into accepting her delegates from there. The difference here is that Obama wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan. He was in Florida and had just as much chance to win delegates as she did. Depending on other events, she may actually go into the convention with a near tie or even a lead in delegates. She currently leads in PLEO’s, and would likely overtake Obama in popular vote should my predictions come to pass.

I would be extremely surprised in the end if my prediction on how Florida and Michigan are handled don’t turn out to be 100% correct.

In the end, a battle between McCain and Obama would turn on youth versus experience. Obama’s campaign has already been victim to several mistakes of inexperience. None of them terminal–yet. However, quantity eventually overrides quality, and the PLEOs will leave him in droves if he makes many more missteps between now and the convention. However, avoiding missteps and showing that along with youth comes energy, enthusiasm, new ideas, charm and charisma, and Hillary (and eventually McCain) faces the opposite problem.

Now, why under these circumstances would she even consider dropping out?

The problem with this argument is that you then have to count out the states that will definitely go Democrat in November (like Hillary’s big claims of New York and California…) as well as other probably safe Republican states like Texas.

At the end of the day you can argue that whoever can win Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio will win the election… but…

I just don’t see it without a popular vote win, and I don’t think she gets that. Obama should pick up enough votes in Mississippi and North Carolina to counter the votes she’ll pick up in Pennsylvania.

Also… for more substantive speculation as to November’s electoral math… SurveyUSA has just done a 50-state poll for each of the possible match-ups and posted the full results, and electoral math. (Link: http://www.surveyusa.com/) It’s probably both too early and too imprecise, but it’s a fascinating starting point nonetheless.

For example, they put Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Virginia and North Dakota all as Obama states that would go McCain against Hillary, and New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arkansas as Hillary states that would go McCain against Obama.

However, Obama’s assumed win over HRC would ensure a D loss in the general election. Externally, he’s too inexperienced on the national stage to last through the white-hot intensity of a GE campaign without making the slips that will allow everyone to see behind the mask – a hyperpartisan social uber-liberal. Internally, the Clinton’s know that an Obama win will write finis to any hopes they may have for returning to center stage. Obama would sweeep the Clinton minions from the Party. HRC’s only hope will be to sabotage Obama’s campaign, which will let the Clinton’s maintain their chokehold over the Party and allow her to run again in 4 years making the claim, ‘We told you he couldn’t win, but I stepped aside for the good of the Party. Now, it’s REALLY my turn’. Count on it – if Obama’s the nominee, the Clinton’s will be working in parallel with McCain to ensure Obama’s defeat.

I can see the super delegates doing that sort of math and coming up with Hillary as their best choice.