Comments on: Another Big Day For The Democrats Approaches… http://informedspeculation.com/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/ Refunds Cheerfully Given To All Who Disagree Tue, 09 Feb 2010 03:29:20 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: new homes for sale http://informedspeculation.com/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/comment-page-1/#comment-494568 new homes for sale Wed, 07 May 2008 09:02:07 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/#comment-494568 <strong>new homes for sale...</strong> During the interview, Robin took the listeners on a virtual tour of her home describing even the smallest details. As she spoke of each and every room, her voice was filled with the emotion of many fond memories and the loving qualities a home owner ha... new homes for sale…

During the interview, Robin took the listeners on a virtual tour of her home describing even the smallest details. As she spoke of each and every room, her voice was filled with the emotion of many fond memories and the loving qualities a home owner ha…

]]> By: Ryan http://informedspeculation.com/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/comment-page-1/#comment-494492 Ryan Wed, 07 May 2008 00:43:01 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/#comment-494492 I love the Republican triumphalism in these comment threads. As if we weren't already aware that the GOP is completely disconnected from reality, Mark, your "conservative" interlocutors want to make double sure we know it. I'm with Peter: if anyone wants to give me those kind of odds that the Democratic ("Democrat" is a noun, not an adjective) nomination isn't decided on the first ballot, I'm in. Also, looks like Obama is going to win NC by considerably more than 5. Any other bets you want to wager on, Chris? You seem to have really awesome predictive powers. I love the Republican triumphalism in these comment threads. As if we weren’t already aware that the GOP is completely disconnected from reality, Mark, your “conservative” interlocutors want to make double sure we know it. I’m with Peter: if anyone wants to give me those kind of odds that the Democratic (“Democrat” is a noun, not an adjective) nomination isn’t decided on the first ballot, I’m in.

Also, looks like Obama is going to win NC by considerably more than 5. Any other bets you want to wager on, Chris? You seem to have really awesome predictive powers.

]]> By: Bob from Ohio http://informedspeculation.com/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/comment-page-1/#comment-494419 Bob from Ohio Tue, 06 May 2008 18:04:13 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/#comment-494419 It is Howard Dean's fault about Michigan and Florida. The DNC rules say there is a 1/2 reduction of votes for violating the dates for primaries. This is the same penalty imposed on the GOP delegations by the GOP. The DNC departed from their own rules and imposed a complete loss of delegates. So, ha ha. It is Howard Dean’s fault about Michigan and Florida.

The DNC rules say there is a 1/2 reduction of votes for violating the dates for primaries.

This is the same penalty imposed on the GOP delegations by the GOP.

The DNC departed from their own rules and imposed a complete loss of delegates.

So, ha ha.

]]> By: peter http://informedspeculation.com/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/comment-page-1/#comment-494374 peter Tue, 06 May 2008 16:16:56 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/#comment-494374 "I still put the odds at at least 2/5 that the Democrat nomination is not decided on the first ballot at the convention." If you are willing to put real money behind your prediction, I would be happy to take these odds. “I still put the odds at at least 2/5 that the Democrat nomination is not decided on the first ballot at the convention.”

If you are willing to put real money behind your prediction, I would be happy to take these odds.

]]> By: Chris J. Breisch http://informedspeculation.com/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/comment-page-1/#comment-494337 Chris J. Breisch Tue, 06 May 2008 13:17:11 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/#comment-494337 Oh, and as far as the 'secret nuclear option' goes, remember that I predicted this several weeks ago. On another note, I'm apparently stupid, as are a lot of others. Adding in FL and MI doesn't get Hillary closer to 2025. But what it does do is move Obama farther away from the magic #. Because the magic # then changes to 2208, a number that Obama can't reach without a miracle. http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080506/NATION/525934081/1001 I still put the odds at at least 2/5 that the Democrat nomination is not decided on the first ballot at the convention. And, after the first ballot, all bets are off. All delegates are allowed to vote for whomever they wish. Oh, and as far as the ’secret nuclear option’ goes, remember that I predicted this several weeks ago.

On another note, I’m apparently stupid, as are a lot of others. Adding in FL and MI doesn’t get Hillary closer to 2025. But what it does do is move Obama farther away from the magic #. Because the magic # then changes to 2208, a number that Obama can’t reach without a miracle.

http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080506/NATION/525934081/1001

I still put the odds at at least 2/5 that the Democrat nomination is not decided on the first ballot at the convention.

And, after the first ballot, all bets are off. All delegates are allowed to vote for whomever they wish.

]]> By: Chris J. Breisch http://informedspeculation.com/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/comment-page-1/#comment-494324 Chris J. Breisch Tue, 06 May 2008 11:59:00 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/#comment-494324 Ahhh...the 15-point stuff is coming from the Hillary camp. That way, when they only lose by 5, they can talk about how much they exceeded expectations. It's all about spin. Ahhh…the 15-point stuff is coming from the Hillary camp. That way, when they only lose by 5, they can talk about how much they exceeded expectations.

It’s all about spin.

]]> By: Chris J. Breisch http://informedspeculation.com/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/comment-page-1/#comment-494322 Chris J. Breisch Tue, 06 May 2008 11:31:25 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/#comment-494322 Headline on Drudge as I type this: DANGER DAY: HILLARY FACES '15-POINT DEFEAT' IN NC Riiiiiiiight. I'll believe it when I see it. The largest deficit I've seen for her in ANY recent poll in NC is 10. And most, while having Obama ahead, are within the margin of error for the poll. I voted this morning in Indiana. Longest lines I've ever seen for a primary. A LOT of crossover voters voting for Hillary. We'll see. I'll say Hillary by 5 in Indiana, and I'm going to drop Obama to +5 in NC (had him at +7 yesterday). Headline on Drudge as I type this: DANGER DAY: HILLARY FACES ‘15-POINT DEFEAT’ IN NC

Riiiiiiiight.

I’ll believe it when I see it. The largest deficit I’ve seen for her in ANY recent poll in NC is 10. And most, while having Obama ahead, are within the margin of error for the poll.

I voted this morning in Indiana. Longest lines I’ve ever seen for a primary. A LOT of crossover voters voting for Hillary. We’ll see. I’ll say Hillary by 5 in Indiana, and I’m going to drop Obama to +5 in NC (had him at +7 yesterday).

]]> By: Gulf Coast Bandit http://informedspeculation.com/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/comment-page-1/#comment-494145 Gulf Coast Bandit Tue, 06 May 2008 03:34:04 +0000 http://decision08.net/2008/05/05/another-big-day-for-the-democrats-approaches/#comment-494145 It's not Hillary's fault that Obama pulled his name off the ballot in Michigan. Besides, there's a sizable chunk of Uncommitted delegates who are supposed to go to Obama. And, should we punish the voters for their elected officials' stupidity? I think Hillary wins Indiana by 8, Obama squeaks out of NC by 1. The road goes ever on and on... In case anyone missed it, Guam split its 4 pledged delegate votes, 2 to Clinton and 2 to Obama, after Obama pulled out a 7-vote victory there the other day. It’s not Hillary’s fault that Obama pulled his name off the ballot in Michigan. Besides, there’s a sizable chunk of Uncommitted delegates who are supposed to go to Obama. And, should we punish the voters for their elected officials’ stupidity?

I think Hillary wins Indiana by 8, Obama squeaks out of NC by 1. The road goes ever on and on…

In case anyone missed it, Guam split its 4 pledged delegate votes, 2 to Clinton and 2 to Obama, after Obama pulled out a 7-vote victory there the other day.

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