Well, he’s flipflopped on some issues (he is a politician, is he not?)

He is. And, “when the facts change” it does make sense to re-evaluate one’s positions. But McCain has a completely undeserved reputation for stalwart “straight talk” consistency. And many of his changes in position seem (at least to me) to stem more from political expediency than from any sober re-evaluation of the facts.

I think you’re not giving him enough points for willingness to pick the unpopular side and stick by it (the Gang of 14…

I don’t see that as a matter of principle at all. It was simply a disagreement about tactics. I realize some conservatives thought that the best strategy would have been to “go nuclear” and change the Senate rules. I bet they’re glad now that McCain and others saved them from their own foolishness. They have, after all, spent this Senate session filibustering everything in sight.

…Iraq …

Yep, he hasn’t budged at all from his enthusiastic support for the Iraq war. Some might think that a sober re-evaluation of the facts (see above) might be called for. But, OK, I can see that others might think otherwise.

… campaign finance reform …

Funny you should mention that, given his troubles with the Federal Election Commission. Apparently, his prefered solution is to get the (Republican) Chairman of the FEC booted off the Commission.

BUT…he’s a good man with a good biography,

He has an amazing biography, and he is, undoubtably, the best of a very weak field of Republican candidates. But since, as you say, winning in November would be a longshot for any Republican, this year was hardly likely to attract a strong field.

and even if you don’t agree with his principles, he largely sticks by them.

McCain has flipflopped on everything from the Bush tax cuts to torture.

There are some “principles” he’s been alarmingly consistent about: expelling Russia from the G8, for instance. He’s had that nutbar idea for a while (he’s been touting it since at least 2005). But, in general, consistency has not been his strong suite.

I give McCain a 45% shot.

I think that’s about right.

If we elected the President based on the popular vote, I would predict an Obama blowout. But, looking at the Electoral College map, he still has a tough hill to climb.

The public mood was very anti-Republican…even more so than now. I predicted a bad night for the Republicans prior to the election for a couple of weeks, and got hammered by some regulars for my pessimism.

In 2008, it’s a bit early to judge the mood…but the war is still very unpopular, the Republican incumbent is EXTREMELY unpopular, the economy is in a funk…so yeah, McCain’s the underdog.

BUT…he’s a good man with a good biography, and even if you don’t agree with his principles, he largely sticks by them. He’s not a dream candidate, and the Democrats will be favored…but I’m not ready to concede yet…there will be plenty of gaffes and mini-scandals on both sides between now and November, and the economy is showing some signs of perking up slightly, while Iraq is not the issue now it was in 2006.

I’m not engaging in foolhardy optimism – as I said above, I give McCain a 45% shot. I’m a betting man, and if I had to put my money down right now, I’d put it on Obama – but I might hedge with a side bet on McCain just to be safe…

That’ll be one nice thing if Obama is elected: Democrats won’t be able to blame their failed policies on Republicans; nor will they be able to take credit for the Republicans’ good policies (like Clinton did with Welfare Reform and NAFTA).

t’s the same kind of insanity as all the Republicans who blamed the 2006 losses on things like earmarks.

No, no, Ryan!

The Minneapolis bridge collapse was due to earmarks.

The 2006 loss was because Republicans had “lost their way” and were not pushing through the conservative agenda with sufficient alacrity.

Please try to keep the fantasies straight.

Aaron: For seven years now, the GOP has been proven wrong about literally everything. I wouldn’t strain myself too hard trying to make the case that Republicans know the first thing about reality.