God is love. Love is blind. Stevie Wonder is blind, therefore, Stevie Wonder is God.

Can we now agree that in the selection of the party’s candidate “democracy” is vastly overrated? Obama may not be strong in the way that Clinton is, and vice-versa, but he is the candidate the Democrats want to put forward as their candidate for the presidency. There is no doubt about that, is there?

I think this is one of those “koan” things the Buddhists down the street keep fussing about.

1. This racism card is overplayed. The idea that white people who don’t vote for Obama are racist is as absurd as the idea that women who don’t vote for Hillary are insufficiently feminist. Hillary annihilated Obama in West Virginia because she has positioned herself as the candidate of older, whiter, bluer-collar voters. There is a traditional divide in the Democratic Party between blacks, wealthy liberals, and blue collar workers. That Clinton and Obama represent those divides doesn’t have to have anything to do with race. We do ourselves no favors by pretending it does.

2. Obama will almost certainly have enough superdelegates by next Tuesday to clinch victory with a win in Oregon. He’s adding them at a rate of like 5-10 a day at this point. The Edwards endorsement tonight should be very influential as well. Also, there are 8 members of the so-called Pelosi Club who will be free to endorse him as soon as he takes a majority of pledged delegates next Tuesday. This one will be finished then. Harping on and on about Florida and Michigan is a distraction; the fastest way to get them seated is to get Clinton out of the race. A victorious Obama will be happy to seat those delegations. And finally, the idea that “no matter what happens with MI and FL’s delegates, their popular vote should/will be considered” is completely insane. I know you’re a Republican shill, Chris, but Michigan’s popular vote *should* be considered? Really? With Obama not even on the ballot? If I were in the habit of making up silly odds that don’t bear on reality at all, I might give that a 1/50 chance. Since I’m not, I’ll give it the odds it actually merits: 0.

So, can you be white and vote for someone other than Obama and not be racist? Increasingly the answer, from many, is no.

Obviously it’s bad form to declare yourself the winner before the other side has conceded. But there are problems with this.

The math doesn’t add up.

He’s still about 130 short of what he needs to reach the incorrect number of 2025. OR and KY together only add up to 125, and he’s going to lose KY, probably big. But he’ll win OR too. Let’s be generous and give him an even split on delegates in those two states, so he picks up 63 (I’ll give him the half even). That still puts him 67 short. So, unless he’s planning on picking up around 70 superdelegates this week, it can’t be done.

The scary thing for Obama is if he doesn’t get to the magic number after PR, SD, and MT. A total of 52 delegates, I think, and it seems unlikely that he’ll even get half, but let’s be generous. Give him 26. Now he’s 41 short. Call it a round 40. He needs to pick up 40 more super delegates in the next three weeks (let’s be honest, he probably will), or he’s in trouble.

The primary season will have ended and there will be no incentive for other superdelegates to march his way. If I were an uncommitted super at that point, I’m pretty sure I’d wait for the convention to announce my support. Obama can’t have that. Howard Dean can’t have it either.

The other big point about this win, is that it now (as I predicted weeks ago) brings Hillary ahead in popular vote count if MI and FL’s votes are included. I think it’s safe to say that no matter what happens with MI and FL’s delegates, their popular vote should/will be considered.

So, why does Hillary push on? Maybe because she leads in the popular vote. Maybe because she sees Obama as unelectable. Maybe because she recognizes that if Dems counted their delegates the way Reps do, she’d actually have locked in the nomination by now. Maybe she’s just plain ornery (hey, Teddy went to the convention in 1980 without withdrawing against an incumbent President with far less support than she has).

Current odds:
Obama wins Dem nom: 9/10 (steady, although another butt-kicking in KY and a less than impressive performance in OR may actually drop this number)
MI and FL delegate counts included in some fashion: 100% (steady)
Hillary wins popular vote for Dem nom: 6/10 (new entry)
Hillary withdraws before convention: 1/20 (new entry)
Dem nomination decided on first ballot: 9/20 (down from 1/2)
Hillary takes VP slot: 1/4 (new entry)
Obama wins Presidency: 1/3 (steady–will go up once he’s declared officially Dem nominee)