No Convention Bounce?
Right now, the best I can muster is that the convention just doesn’t feel right. Although I might be dangerously treading into “I know it when I see it” territory, I knew after Gore’s convention 2000 speech that he would get a bump, while I had a really bad feeling after the 2004 convention. The polling backed me up in both cases.
The tracking polls today show Obama ahead by 1 (Gallup) and behind by 1 (Rasmussen). Remember that this is after more than three days where Democrats, from the VP pick to the convention, have completely dominated news coverage. We haven’t gained any ground from last week, and have in fact lost some. That is not a good sign. Call me a hand-wringer or whatever, but I am nervous.
I don’t know exactly what we need to do to get a bounce, but I do know that it hasn’t happened yet.
While anything that worries Bower is almost guaranteed to delight me, I think (a) he misdiagnoses the problem, and (b) he speaks too soon.
Let’s start with (b) first. Tonight, Joe Biden will do very well indeed, I predict, and of course, we’ll have the spectacle of Obama in stadium rock star mode tomorrow night. There will probably be a convention bump of some sort. Let’s face it, Michelle Obama, despite almost universal praise, didn’t ignite the crowd on the first night, so things got off to a bit of a slow start.
But, as I’ve pointed out on several occasions, the real story is the lack of a VP bump. Joe Biden was pretty much a flop, in terms of inital reaction (polling reaction, I’m speaking of…most Democrats, at least those that blog and talk to the media, seemed pretty happy with the choice). And the flat reaction to Biden carried over into the convention. Now, if the convention ends, and there is no bump at all, with the Republicans set to take center stage, then Bowers has every right to be worried…
UPDATE 8:26 p.m.: Wow, I thought I’d watch Bill Clinton, so I turned on the convention, and he’s already getting off stage! They DID give him a less than optimal spot. Wolf Blitzer is saying Clinton very strongly endorsed Obama, but really, did anyone expect any less?…
UPDATE 10:36 p.m.: So, Biden’s speech…hmmm. Well, it wasn’t the barnburner I thought he would dish out. I respect the fact that he paid tribute to John McCain and said he was a genuine friend. Richard Cohen may have been right when he said that those who expect Biden to be an attack dog on John McCain are not aware of their long friendship.
Biden did hit the only real theme, besides the vague ‘change’, that has emerged from this convention: that John McCain is more of the same. But he fumbled some words, robbing his delivery of the punch it needed, a couple of times, and though I appreciated his words about his family (he came across as very sincere and likable), his speech felt even fluffier than Michelle Obama’s, overall.
This has not been a great Democratic convention, in terms of oratory…Obama needs to REALLY knock one out of the park tomorrow, and I honestly don’t know if he’s up to it, though the setting will probably be very exciting. We’ll see…
I wonder who’s watching. My mother-in-law, who is as dyed in the wool Democrat as anyone I know (she had an ~ 8.x10′ Dukakis/Bentsen sign on her Cape Cod front lawn), was visiting for the last few days and hasn’t watched a minute of the convention. So I bit, and asked why not, her answer is that she is frustrated with the whole process, particularly the “anointing” of Barack Obama as the candidate. I asked if she is a Hillary gal; if looks could kill. Finally she just said that she doesn’t know what the Democrats stand for (and fight for) anymore and thus watching the convention, which she called nothing but a big public and superficial display, is a waste of her time. I honestly don’t know if she will vote this year…
As I’ve said, polls don’t matter much yet. Any bounce from either convention will be a true bounce, up in the air and right back down..
Missed Bubba as well. Got home, walked the dog, turned on the TV, and he was leaving the stage. Maybe Steve is right and nobody saw it.
Biden’s speech is a disaster. I’m handing the election to McCain right now. Obama has failed.
What was wrong with Biden’s speech? I thought it was pretty good.
About to update the post with my thoughts…
I thought Biden’s “George . . . John McCain — Freudian Slip! Freudian Slip!” line was pretty lame.
Why didn’t he just say, “I made a joke! Did you get it? Wasn’t it funny?”
Billy C gave a great speech earlier. One thing republicans have been taking for granted is that hes essentially been campaigning against Obama up until tonight. If, and its a big if, he truly joins forces with Obama and starts campaigning for him it would spell big trouble for McCain. Also, he really showed up Joe Biden, who speaks about as well as Bush does.
Obamas in a lose/lose for tomorrow night. If he “knocks one out of the park” he’ll fit in perfectly to the picture the McCain camp has been painting of him. Which has been working well. If he doesnt then he’ll get negative media coverage and lose hype.
I think Clinton was very good and Kerry was great. (John Kerry? Yes, amazingly.) Kerry was the first person I’ve seen really articulate the fury and the outrage a lot of Americans feel toward the Republican Party. That there are not more speeches like his is why I’m writing this convention off. I will honestly be surprised if there is a substantial bounce from all this.
Bowers was a little more kind today (or last night, not sure, but I read it today). He says he actually will be looking forward to the daily’s on Friday, for the first time.
I didn’t watch anything last night (continuing my mark so far of having not watched any of the convention, not even any of the coverage of it), but Dems seem very happy with Clinton’s and Biden’s speeches.
I was happy with both of them. Clinton knocked it out of the park, and Biden came off as a regular, plain-spoken guy who’s willing to roll up his sleeves and get to work for Obama. He’s not a brilliant orator, but we knew that before tonight. That’s not why he was picked. To get on him because he flubbed a few words misses the point, I think.
I thought Clinton and Biden were effective, at least for the party faithful. Clinton sucked it up and paid his party dues, and gave a typical Clinton speech, as expected. Of course, I still doubt the sincerity of his endorsement of Obama, given the way the primary went. And Biden, I thought, did what he needed to do at this time—give a good introduction of himself and his personal story, and test the waters a little on being the attack dog. Despite his being friends with “George…er…John McCain,” I think he will quickly warm up to making those attacks. Friends or no, this is for keeps. McCain better do the same and get some of his own attack dogs. That milquetoast McCain spokseman Tucker Bounds that was on Larry King afterward for the GOP response won’t cut it.
Looking to tonight…Have you see the Roman style stage that will be Obama’s backdrop for his speech? It’s as if he’s annointing himself Julius Caesar. And I hear Oprah will be there, too, maybe to put an olive leaf crown on his head while we’re at it. This should play some into the Republican campaign points about Obama’s supposed arrogance, celebrity, and cult of personality. In any event, the get-up reminds of the Stonehenge stage scene from Spinal Tap. Now all they need is a dwarf or two to come out and dance around the stage…as long as they don’t trod upon the props…
Why does anyone think that Biden is capable of an excellent speech? Or is an effective campaigner? He seems ok, but not great, in debates but other than that, I don’t see it. Certainly not based on either 1988 or 2008. He is just too long winded and does not have any charisma at all.
If Gore had use Clinton in 2000, Gore would have won.
I don’t see Bill’s motivation in really helping Obama. It kills Hillary’s 2012 chances…… Ok, that’s the motivation.
Off-topic:
Mark, I keep hearing that we should expect big things from your Red Raiders this year. Here’s to a successful season!
Ok, I’m confused by Gallup’s showing of a 6-point bounce in their daily tracking, which consists of a rolling cycle of three days of polling.
Since that’s 5 points better than the day before, doesn’t that mean about a 15 point difference between Wednesday (the new day that rolled on), and Sunday (the day that rolled off)?
Or am I missing something obvious? I have a feeling that I left my math degree at home today.
I have a question: who among you has ever participated in, or thought it might be fun to participate in, a national political convention?
I’m prompted to ask by a sudden realization that I have never felt even a little desire to do so and just as suddenly began to wonder: who are these people that sit there waving flags and such, crying, and cheering, and doing, well, whatever else it is that they do at political conventions.
Are you one of them? Can you enlighten me?
Go Red Raiders…
TMS, I can’t understand all the tears, that’s for dang sure…Chris, you raise a good point on the Gallup polling, but I don’t have an answer…
Jason, does the Invesco sound system go to 11?…