Why am I telling you this? Because I think the media is so enthralled and infatuated by Sarah Palin’s Western ways that you are failing to seriously question the truth of her claims and who she says she is. There are hundreds of thousands of women like Palin in the West—and I’m sure in the south and east—and most have families and stories like mine and Palin’s. But that doesn’t necessarily make any of us qualified to be vice-president of the United Sates in times as dangerous and critical as these. This is someone, ‘who hasn’t thought much about Iraq” and who fires or squelches people who disagree with her. This is not a thoughtful team player who will truly work in a bi-partisan manner to solve the problems America and the world are facing—from terrorism, to global warming, to the failure of our economy, world food shortages, etc. In fact she would do just the opposite. Yes, she has energized the Republican Party and this campaign. But her sarcastic one-liners are meant to fan the flames of red neck fever and they have succeeded. Please open your eyes and don’t be afraid to do your job. The work of the press is one of the most important in a free society. Take a look at the condition in which she left her little town of Wasilla after her 6 years as mayor. Take a look at her “leadership” style, her lack of interest in the “details” of policy and governing, her lack of belief in “science.”

Although I was raised in a conservation Republican family, I have been an Independent for years and was a supporter of McCain before most people knew who he was. However, with his choice of Palin, he has lost all respect I had for him and with that, the possibility of ever getting my vote. He has put politics and winning above the best interests of this country. Shame on him and shame on the press for not aggressively and thoroughly checking her out. There is still time and the information is there if you are willing to look. Look beyond her lifestyle—it is merely a reflection of the culture in which she grew up and says nothing about her character, integrity, or qualifications to head this country, in the event McCain is elected and dies.

I think Chris sorta answered your question but let me elaborate.

It’s easy to screen for registered voters: “Hi, I’m calling from the Gallup Organization. Are you registered to vote? No? click”

It’s a lot harder to screen for likely voters, as the very definition is fuzzy. Each polling organization has its own criteria. And some, based on their historical record of accuracy, seem to be better than others. So, over and above the “statistical error” (the MOE), I would suggest that there’s a systematic error associated to any poll of likely voters.

Chris previously pointed us to a pollster.com analysis of the “house effect” associated to different polling organizations. This is another source of systematic error, where their polling methods tend to skew their results either towards Democrats or towards Republicans (by as much as several percent, in some cases). I don’t know of a similar analysis of the “house effect” in their likely voter screens. But even the regular (registered voter) Gallup/USA-Today poll has a house effect that is distinctly skewed towards the Republicans.

If we knew enough about these systematic errors, we could correct for them. But, then, the pollsters themselves are smart guys, and presumably go to great effort to eliminate these systematic effects in their own polls, so it’s probably not as easy as it looks.

But, as I was religiously reminded in the 2000 election, the popular vote doesn’t count. What counts is electoral votes. And, there, the prospects for McCain/Palin are bleak indeed. I think all the battleground states have been re-polled post convention, and Obama/Biden are still way ahead. There 228 electoral votes that are solidly “blue”. Add in Pennsylvania and Washington, which have been trending consistently Democratic all season, and Obama/Biden have 260 electoral votes, just 10 shy of what they need. There are 165 electoral votes which are solidly “red”. Add in those that have been tending Republican, and that gets McCain/Palin to about 205. To win, they would have to run the tables on the remaining states, winning pretty much every state that remains up for grabs (including those that currently lean Democratic).

Another point to make with respect to that poll is that compared to all other polls out there, it dramatically oversamples Republicans. Now, maybe Gallup is correct, and it really is just down to one point difference between Dems and Reps (47-46), but Rasmussen currently has the difference at 5.7 and they’re still one of the more “Republican friendly” samplings. Most of the year pollsters have been using about +10 Dems (or even higher), but have started to use smaller numbers lately. My current belief is that IF Republicans remain enthused about McCain/Palin, then we’re probably looking at +2-+3 for Dems, but that’s based on little more than a “gut feeling”. In both 2000 and 2004, I believe the difference was 0, and 2006 had Dems +2. That’s how I remember it, but I could be wrong. I don’t have time to look it up right now.

Still, even a +3 Dem advantage would represent a dramatic shift towards McCain in the current electoral picture, since all of those polls are based on much heavier Dem weightings.

As I’ve been saying all year, I would hate to be a pollster this year. I would not be surprised if the final popular vote is 3 points (or more) off of the final polls going into election day. On the other hand, the people doing this are pretty smart and have a lot of experience in the area. Maybe I’m not giving them enough credit.

My study of stats is way too far in my past – and even then was a minor focus of my formal education – so I have a question (which may not even be a stats question) that I think you can answer:

I’m inclined to ignore polls of registered voters as they include the voting preference of many people that simply do not vote, does the inclusion of these folks distort the poll in a significant way, or will a random sample, or some other technique, smooth out any skewing effect?

It gives a great overview and it is updated as the polls come in!

http://www.youcalc.com/apps/1218019592041

… and its easy to put on your blog!

Make a difference, keep on voting!

Palin will sit down for multiple interviews with Gibson in Alaska over two days, most likely Thursday and Friday, said McCain adviser Mark Salter.

Soft-focus lighting, and some mood-music … I can hardly contain my anticipation.

With a quoted +/- 3% margin of error…

That’s for the full sample of 1000 adults. The MOE for any subset (e.g. ‘likely voters’) goes way up. Note, too, that the Gallup daily tracker, taken during the same 3-day period as the Gallup/USA-Today poll (but with a larger sample) shows McCain over Obama 48%-45% among registered voters (MOE=±2%). The disparity between registered/likely voters should be pretty heartening to you … if you believe it.

Still, a definite post-convention bounce.

However…

USA Today is running the first Gallup poll that’s fully post-conventions. It has McCain up 50%-46% among registered voters (barely significant, with the small sample size) and an astounding 54%-44% among likely voters. With a quoted +/- 3% margin of error — that’s a significant *majority*.

Can’t wait to see the three-day tracking polls from Gallup and Rasmussen tomorrow.

Also can’t wait to see how the Obama campaign reacts, even just to this story.

Source:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm