It’s An Outlier, No Doubt…
…and other polling shows Obama with leads up to double digits, but Republicans looking for any hope in a hopeless climate can cling to the new AP poll, showing Obama up by a statistically insignificant one-point among likely voters.
But the GOP, under the heavy odds stacked against it in the current cycle, has turned the old saying upside down: in every silver lining, there’s a cloud. In this case, Marc Ambinder spots a statistical oddity that might explain the sudden surge: a doubling-down of evangelical weighting.
In any event, when presented with a poll significantly at odds with every other poll, the safe bet is to wait for further confirmation from other polling before putting too much stock in it. The race will tighten, almost surely…but I sincerely doubt it has tightened this much overnight…
If you look at question DM15, the religious breakdowns, they look pretty reflective of the US demographic. Perhaps responders got confused about being asked if they were born again? Nonetheless, DM15 tells me that there is not a religious bias to the poll.
Question DM5 if fascinating because it asked whether respondents were urban, rural, or suburban. I have often thought that there is an urban bias to most polling. Remember that over 100 MM Americans live in towns of 10,000 people or less. This poll does not appear to have an urban bias and therefore might be more representative of the voting public.
Of course its likely wrong but the other polls are likely wrong too.
The real margin is probably 3 to 5
TIPP/IBF shows 3.7, Rasmussan 5.
Maybe Obama has a DUI he forgot to talk about.
BTW, I’m sure the Ambinder column is interesting but he writes for the home of Andrew Sullivan, OB/GYN so cannot read him.
I agree that 3-5 will probably be the ultimate margin.
You’re right that Andrew Sullivan is completely pathetic and probably the most overrated “journalist” to ever turn to blogging and punditry.
But The Atlantic is a fine magazine – perhaps the best one still standing, and the only one I still pay money to subscribe to…
Sorry but if you lay down with dogs etc. So, The Atlantic’s web site is out.
Hey Bob,
At this point, Obama could be caught on tape snorting lines and the MSM wouldnt show it. Never have I observed the media so blatantly in the bag for one candidate.
There is so much ALREADY KNOWN about Obama that is not being reported that should disqualify this guy for the presidency. Why would new news matter?
(Frankly he wouldn’t pass a basis background check by the govt to get a position in the Defense Dept, NSA, FBI, CIA, State, etc.)
It would be funny if it weren’t so pathetic.