Informed Speculation

…a story comes along that is right up Mickey Kaus’s alley, and he just destroys it.  So it has been with President Obama and his inept handling of the health care reform debate.  Case in point:

Obama at a town hall today:

“Here’s my promise. …[snip] We will not sign … I will not sign a health care bill that is not deficit- neutral, that is not paid for. I will not sign a bill that does not have all the reforms that we need to lower health care inflation over the long term.”

Really? This is a pretty hyperbolic veto threat. If Congress sends him a bill that dramatically expands health coverage, includes a public option and is deficit-neutral over a decade … he’ll still refuse to sign if because it does not also have “all” the reforms necessary to “bend the curve” after the CBO’s 10-year window? All of ‘em! Does anybody believe this? … Did he plan this enhanced threat in advance or is he just winging it? …

And he hasn’t taken it easy on the Obama apologists like Ezra Klein and the New York Times, either…I’d go so far as to say Kaus has been the go-to blogger on this issue, and keep in mind, he supports the Dems on the issue!  His beef has not been with the plan itself, but rather its bungled selling to the public under false pretenses that it will reduce the deficit, rather than because it offers additional security to all Americans…in any event, he is on my daily must-read list as long as these bills are alive.

But there is plenty of blame to go around in the debacle.  Kimberley Strassel of the WSJ makes the case that Henry Waxman is a quite big target for the almost total failure of the Obama’s big-ticket items, ‘cap-and-trade’ and health care reform:

…[T]he result of his purist, knuckle-cracking style is that House Democrats flood to recess today on a wave of division, confusion and dismal headlines. “Henry Waxman has been our greatest gift,” chortles one House GOP aide. If Mr. Obama ultimately fails in his top ambitions, he should know early whom to thank.

On the conservative side of the equation, Mr. Waxman has unrelentingly antagonized the rural Democratic members who make up the majority of his committee. He wrote a climate bill without their input, loaded it with provisions that hurt their districts, and left them to vote on Republican amendments designed to inflict maximum political damage.

He ignored requests to wait to see if the Senate could produce, instead forcing a painful floor vote on legislation prior to the July Fourth recess. Members went home to be brutalized by constituents and local employers.

This high-handed treatment already had Blue Dogs loaded for bear, not that Mr. Waxman heeded warnings. When he again ducked into secret meetings to craft health-care legislation, a group of 45 members sent a letter complaining. “We don’t want a briefing on the bill after it’s written. We want to help write it,” declared Arkansas’s Mike Ross, chair of the Blue Dog health-care task force. Rebuffed, conservative Democrats delineated for Mr. Waxman what they saw as an acceptable bill. Rebuffed again, they asked Mr. Waxman to let the Senate go first. Rebuffed yet again, Mr. Ross took his case to the nation, with a revolt that has beat down the House bill for weeks.

Mr. Waxman’s subsequent negotiations with these members—in which he reportedly showed little concern for the political challenges of anyone outside of Los Angeles—made matters worse. Blue Dogs stormed out of one session, with Louisiana’s Charlie Melancon bellowing: “I’ve been lied to. We have not had legitimate negotiations.” Mr. Waxman, for his part, declared he was “not going to let [Blue Dogs] empower Republicans to control the committee.”

…On the liberal side of the equation, Mr. Waxman’s committee ownership has meanwhile potentially set expectations too high to be reconciled with Blue Dog demands. The Californian’s “breakthrough” with Mr. Ross this week (achieved with Mr. Dingell’s help) contained only minuscule concessions, yet set off a riot on the left.

Within a few hours of his Blue Dog deal, Mr. Waxman had to postpone markup again as his furious fellow “progressives” accused Blue Dogs of hijacking their bill. His “deal,” in fact, leaves just enough scary stuff in the legislation to allow Blue Dogs to get smacked around all August, while taking just enough out to ensure the base reaches fever pitch by September.

Other than that, he’s doing great!…