Informed Speculation

…but I’ve been on vacation in Lake Tahoe (and now a couple of days in the far less scenic Reno) for my parent’s 50th wedding anniversary.  Lake Tahoe is a true thing of beauty, of that you can be assured.  I’ve had absolutely no contact with the outside world, and wouldn’t know what to blog [...]

…as their poll surge/media blitz continues to pay dividends.  Dan Balz writes in the Washington Post: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), trading on star power, the capacity to raise tens of millions of dollars with relative ease and an ability to dominate media attention, are rewriting the script of the [...]

First Mark Warner, now Evan Bayh: Senator Evan Bayh, Democrat of Indiana, who just two weeks ago took the first steps toward a White House bid in 2008, announced Saturday that he was quitting the race. He said he had concluded that his hopes of winning were too remote to make it worth continuing. Mr. [...]

This very weekend, in fact: At a time when centrism has become a dirty word in some Democratic Party circles, hundreds of the party’s avowed moderates are convening in Denver this weekend to discuss their agenda for this fall’s election and the presidential contest in 2008. The annual meeting of the Democratic Leadership Council, a [...]

Good piece today at Real Clear Politics to start out your Friday with. Tom Bevan takes a look at the battle between the progressive and mainstream Democrats and the newfound fire in the belly of the center. Bevan looks at the Jonathan Chait brouhaha, a hawkish statement by 2008 hopeful Evan Bayh, and this gem [...]

Some interesting results from the most recent Marist Poll on the 2008 election. Hillary leads big (40% of Democrat-leaning respondents would support her as the nominee), with John Edwards second at 16% (Al Gore moves into second if he’s included, with 17%, and Hillary drops back to 33%). More than half of Democrats say they [...]

It’s been nearly a year since I wrote my candidate profile of Hillary Clinton; the last time I updated her odds, I put her at 4-1 (to receive the nomination, not win the presidency). How’s she looking now? Contra Douglas MacKinnon, Hillary WILL run; of that, I feel certain. The harsher rhetoric in her recent [...]

Writing in his column/blog at the Washington Post, Chris Cillizza offers the following list as the 12 candidates to watch for 2008: Democrats – Bayh, Clinton, Edwards, Fiengold, Kerry, Warner Republicans – Allen, Frist, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Romney Well, I haven’t done any handicapping lately, so let’s take a look at those candidates. First, the [...]

The Indianapolis Star is none too pleased with Senator Evan Bayh: Evan Bayh has erased any doubt that he’s running for president in 2008. Indiana’s junior senator announced Friday that he will vote against Indiana’s John Roberts to be the next chief justice of the United States. Roberts was sharp and insightful during four days [...]

I’ve long made a habit of warning our side that if we take Hillary for granted, we’ll regret it; similarly, if Hillary takes Evan Bayh for granted, she would be very foolish indeed. The Democratic Senator for Indiana is considered by some to be the most likely primary candidate to unseat Hillary, so let’s take [...]