A Glimmer Of Hope In The Last Redoubt

I’ve made no bones about it – I expect a big Obama victory on Tuesday, and the most recent polling only confirms that view.  But I am increasingly hopeful about holding the Democrats below 60 in the Senate, not least because the nearly-always-reliable Michale Barone says so: There are five…races in which no candidate leads [...]

Reality Vs. Keeping Your Chin Up

I know McCain is still running a race here, and his pollster wants to make his candidate happy, but contrast this: John McCain’s campaign has seen “significant” progress in internal polling in the last week, Republican pollster Bill McInturff said Tuesday, with notable strides among rural voters and soft Democrats. McInturff, the campaign’s chief pollster, [...]

Life In The Cocoon

Well, this can only be summed up under the rubric of ‘pathetic’.  Right Wing News surveyed 240 right-of-center blogs (I never get asked to participate in these surveys, for some reason) about the election.  76 answered.  We find that 53% believe John McCain will win the election (okay, not too out of line – a [...]

It’s An Outlier, No Doubt…

…and other polling shows Obama with leads up to double digits, but Republicans looking for any hope in a hopeless climate can cling to the new AP poll, showing Obama up by a statistically insignificant one-point among likely voters. But the GOP, under the heavy odds stacked against it in the current cycle, has turned [...]

Despite My Ultimately Empty Threats…

…I did vote today, and I didn’t leave the presidential box blank.  Turnout in my polling location was not that heavy – there were far more people there for the primaries. As we head into the home stretch, there’s simply not much good cheer I can spread for Republicans (Democrats are feasting on a wide [...]

What Has Doomed The McCain Campaign? The Wrong Strategy

Sigh…there are apparently a number of conservatives, both prominent and rank-and-file, who think that Americans right now are riveted by accusations of associations with anti-American radicals in Barack Obama’s past. Maybe this is so, and I’ve slipped off into some Bizarro alternate universe – but in the world that I’m living in, people are concerned [...]

With One Month Until My Blog Becomes Obsolete…

…it really is looking more and more like Obama is going to win this thing handily.  He is up by a statistically significant margin in every poll, and much more troubling for McCain, he has regained momentum in the crucial battleground states that will swing the election.  It might even be a massacre, looking at [...]

The McCain Bounce Has Pretty Much Evaporated…

…and the polls are in a statistical dead heat, with Obama typically leading in the most recent ones (maybe I should say the Palin bounce has evaporated).  I think Obama has gotten off the defensive, and wisely moved beyond Palin to McCain’s ‘lies and distortions’.  It’s a wise tactic because (a) attacking Palin wasn’t working, [...]

Okay, It’s All Post-Convention Now…

…and we can see clearly that the Republicans had a very successful convention.  It’s not the convention I wanted, mind you – Romney was horrible, my man Rudy was bombastic, and McCain a bit dull, though Palin was a shocking surprise on the upside.  Indeed, I wonder whether what we are seeing is a conventional, [...]

Reaction To The Sarah Palin Pick

Well, I was out of the loop for more of the day yesterday than I had planned – obviously, the pick went in a different direction than I or almost anyone else anticipated.  I like it, though – besides the bold stroke of choosing a woman, this particular woman has some very solid credentials of [...]

Okay, THERE’s The Convention Bounce

I said yesterday I thought Democrats bemoaning the lack of a convention bounce were speaking too soon, and sure enough, today’s Gallup Daily Tracking shows Obama by six.  I also see that Obama is planning to lay out a strategy for governing, as I have insisted he must (no link at the moment, but I [...]

The Biden Bounce, Part Deux

Gallup daily tracking: dead even. The latest update includes two days of interviewing following Obama’s selection of Sen. Joe Biden as his vice presidential running mate, and neither day showed an improved performance for Obama. Thus, Obama does not appear to have gotten the same type of immediate “vice presidential bounce” as have presidential candidates [...]

The Biden Bounce

Joltin’ Joe works his magic: It’s a dead heat in the race for the White House. The first national poll conducted entirely after Barack Obama publicly named Joe Biden as his running mate suggests that battle for the presidency between the Illinois senator and Republican rival John McCain is all tied up. In a new [...]

McCain By Four Among Likely Voters?

I don’t believe it for a minute…but here you go.  The more broad-based RealClearPolitics average has Obama by 3.2.  I’m more inclined to go with the InTrade crowd, who have Obama leading by nearly 2-1…

A Peek At The Early Polling

You would expect Obama to be the frontrunner in this campaign, and you would expect he would get a bump from winning the Democratic nomination after so much hoopla…and you’d be right.  Still, the early polling would seem to support my contention that this election is not going to the cakewalk some Obama supporters think [...]

With Wright, It’s All Wrong

God knows why (no pun intended) the Reverend Wright chose just now to plaster his mug all over the tube, but for Obama, the timing couldn’t be worse.  Now, I’m not one of those who faults Obama for the things his former pastor said – I’m satisfied with his moves to distance himself from the [...]

Gallup Daily Tracking Shows Some “Bitter” Aftertaste

After going up by double-figures over rival Hillary Clinton nationally in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, Barack Obama saw his lead completely evaporate in a somewhat-delayed reaction to the “bitter” controversy (or perhaps it was a poor debate performance), though he has pulled back slightly today: The peeling away of national Democratic support for Barack [...]

A Chance To Put The Nail In The Coffin

…figuratively speaking, of course.  I’m speaking of the first real signs of a possible end to the Democratic race before the convention that I’ve yet seen – a narrowing of the race in Pennsylvania.  While Hillary has to remain the favorite, a new poll has Obama up two, and the RCP average has him down [...]

Weathered The Storm, He Has

(You have to read that headline in the voice of Yoda for it to make sense)… Well, it looks like Obama has passed the moment of crisis.  There is no doubt that the Wright affair was a very big deal, indeed – it may not have looked like much on the surface, but it snowballed [...]

The Beginning Of The End For Billary Mach II?

The vaunted Clinton machine is on deathwatch, there’s no doubt about it.  More and more polls show Texas to be a toss-up (it was solidly Hillary in the ancient past – say, a couple of weeks ago).  Ohio remains Clinton territory, for now, but by single-digits, and the momentum is on the other side.  Many [...]