Informed Speculation

…and with McCain comfortably in front in the polling, most of the attention will be focused on the continuing drama of Obama vs. Clinton.  Obama is up, but only by 4 or 5 points, and that makes this a dangerous race for him.  Why? Because he is expected to win, but as I’ve noted on [...]

Well, he’s been making several, but I’ve become accustomed to keeping up with the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, and for the first time, Obama enjoys a significant lead over Hillary nationally.  Rasmussen has been showing similar results, though the margin is smaller. A sign of the growing desperation in the Hillary camp is this story [...]

So, with Texas in play for the first time in memory, how do the polls look? Surprisingly close, on both sides of the aisle.  The Texas Credit Union League Poll (wtf?) has Clinton up 8, but McCain by merely 4. However, American Research Group has Obama(!) up six, and McCain by the same margin. I’m [...]

As we celebrate Super (Bowl) Sunday on the way to Super Tuesday, one state stands head and shoulders above the rest.  The Golden State is the nation’s most populous, and this year, it represents the last best hope for Mitt Romney, and to a lesser extent, Barack Obama.  Both underdogs can point to recent polling [...]

…Anyone But McCains, that is…as the sun rose today over a GOP nomination battle that is all but over, the first reaction of the conservative McCain haters (and they are plentiful) was that of denial, as best exemplified by Hugh Hewitt, who spent the entire day railing against McCain and spinning up far-fetched scenarios involving [...]

Since the fiasco of the New Hampshire Democratic primary polling, there has been a tendency among many, myself included, to feel that Obama will pull in less votes than the polls suggest in any given primary.  Whether this is the Bradley effect, the young voter thing, or any other explanation cannot be conclusively stated at [...]

Personal feelings aside (I think you all know that I’m a big Giuliani fan), Rudy may be the biggest flop of a frontrunner since Howard Dean if things don’t change quickly.  The RCP Florida average has 5 polls up right now, all taken since January 20th, and Rudy doesn’t lead a single one.  In fact, [...]

Fred Thompson is out – of course, you heard this much earlier, but I couldn’t get to my PC until now.  Thompson never really seemed to have his heart in it, and his entire campaign, in retrospect, feels a bit forced and phony.  I certainly never thought he had a shot, and the most interesting [...]

South Carolina is next (for Republicans) and the polls, which show a slight McCain edge, are even more useless than they have been up to this point in this wacky, koo-koo primary season.  Why?  They were all taken during a time frame when McCain was still enjoying the winner’s glow from New Hampshire, and before [...]

Obama’s momentum is undeniably real, and the wear is starting to show in the Hillary camp – and with Hillary herself.  The vote in New Hampshire seems a foregone conclusion – but it’s wrong to say that Hillary is out with a loss.  In fact, she still polls comfortably ahead in such delegate-rich states as [...]

Those looking to read the tea leaves for Tuesday’s New Hampshire vote are asking if the Iowa victories of Obama and Huckabee have wings.  In Obama’s case, the answer appears to be yes.  Obama is tied, trailing by one, or leading by as much as 12 in every major poll in New Hampshire taken after [...]

Tomorrow is the day the 2008 presidential campaign officially kicks off, in the always-odd spectacle of a caucus, not a primary.  Truth be told, though I earlier ventured a prediction of Romney and Hillary, this one is a toss-up on both sides.  The Democratic race in particular could go to Hillary, Edwards, or Obama, and [...]

There are many, many reasons I could never support the modern Democratic party – their embrace of the unions that are killing our public schools and auto industry, their protectionist nonsense, and their general warmth towards big government spending (this is not to ignore the big government spending of some modern Republicans, the present administration [...]

You can’t swing a cat without hitting a Rudy free-fall story, but Jim Geraghty says “Not so fast”: …Rudy will remain in okay shape until it’s a two man race, and that for him to win the nomination, he needs the last remaining Not Rudy candidate to be too bruised to triumph. Iowa, for now, [...]

…much as that will disappoint the campaign managers who were salivating over the coveted ‘D’08′ demographic (not to be confused with the coveted Homer Simpson ‘D’oh!’ demographic).  For lots of reasons, I think it’s much cleaner for an independent blogger to stay out of that game. Nevertheless, I have made it plain to all my [...]

With all the excitement over the rise of Huckabee and Obama, the latest USA Today/Gallup numbers seem like a blast from the past, with Rudy and Clinton actually increasing their front-runner status over the prior polling period: Republicans. It’s Rudy Giuliani still in the lead — and a quartet of rivals all within striking range. [...]

Curious as to why the opening vote in Iowa on January 3rd may go to Obama and Huckabee rather than Hillary and Romney, as presumed for so long?  Peter Beinart says it’s because Iraq has settled down: The reason Iraq is fading is simple: Not as many people are dying there. Fewer deaths mean fewer [...]

Yesterday, I shared my opinion that the surging Mike Huckabee might have a chance at the Republican nomination, due to his obvious appeal to the base, but would lose big in the general election because his appeal is limited to the base.  Today, a couple of stories have added to my apprehensions.  One is a new [...]

Foreign policy has been much more exciting than political campaigns lately, so I’ve been pretty light on the ostensible purpose of this blog.  However, I would be negligent in my duties if I failed to note that while Giuliani has been struggling under the cloud of ‘scandal’, Mike Huckabee has been skyrocketing.  Those looking for proof needn’t [...]

Rudy Giuliani has led the Republican pack wire-to-wire (at least nationally – among the early primary states, Romney seems the frontrunner), but look what’s happening in the race for second.  A plunging Fred Thompson, a resurgent McCain, and Romney are within three points of each other in the RCP averages, and Mike Huckabee is surging [...]