Okay, It’s All Post-Convention Now…

…and we can see clearly that the Republicans had a very successful convention.  It’s not the convention I wanted, mind you – Romney was horrible, my man Rudy was bombastic, and McCain a bit dull, though Palin was a shocking surprise on the upside.  Indeed, I wonder whether what we are seeing is a conventional, [...]

At This Point, Does Anyone Care?

After the crazy baby rumor stuff, and the hurricane, and the long Labor Day weekend, the GOP (already facing an ‘enthusiasm gap’) is going to have to really struggle to keep this convention on track.  At this point, I can’t even find out the schedule for tomorrow.  My man Rudy G. was originally scheduled to [...]

What’s Behind The McCain Pro-Choice Feelers?

A lot of talk is flying on the Republican side of the 2008 election about McCain’s tentative information gathering on the feelings of Republican bigwigs and donors towards a pro-choice VP.  Multiple theories abound, but they can basically be gathered under two tents: he’s rehearsing for actually picking a pro-choice candidate, or he’s covering his [...]

I Know Rudy’s Out For Sure…

…because he sent me an e-mail saying so, and endorsing McCain (rumor has it Arnold may do the same tomorrow or soon) - so what if he sent it to 3 million other people, he also sent it to me, dammit!  The Republicans are debating right now, but I’m not watching…if anyone else is, feel free [...]

For The GOP, The Fat Lady Warms Up

The wires are full of stories that Rudy Giuliani has cut a deal to endorse John McCain on Wednesday.  With Huckabee’s continued friendliness to McCain (including the very real possibility that he is staying in to siphon votes from Romney to get a VP bid) and the huge win in Florida tonight, it’s safe to [...]

Florida – Gateway To The Nomination

At least, that’s the hope of McCain and Romney.  Sadly, I think we can say, based on early leaks of exit polling, it’s goodbye to Rudy Giuliani, who I quite firmly believed (still do) would be the best hope for Republicans in a 2008 election that’s shaping up to be brutal.  Alas, the news gets [...]

Will Obama Continue To Underperform?

Since the fiasco of the New Hampshire Democratic primary polling, there has been a tendency among many, myself included, to feel that Obama will pull in less votes than the polls suggest in any given primary.  Whether this is the Bradley effect, the young voter thing, or any other explanation cannot be conclusively stated at [...]

Big, Big Trouble For Rudy G.

Personal feelings aside (I think you all know that I’m a big Giuliani fan), Rudy may be the biggest flop of a frontrunner since Howard Dean if things don’t change quickly.  The RCP Florida average has 5 polls up right now, all taken since January 20th, and Rudy doesn’t lead a single one.  In fact, [...]

The End Of An Odd Campaign

Fred Thompson is out – of course, you heard this much earlier, but I couldn’t get to my PC until now.  Thompson never really seemed to have his heart in it, and his entire campaign, in retrospect, feels a bit forced and phony.  I certainly never thought he had a shot, and the most interesting [...]

Looking Ahead: Romney’s Last Stand?

Quick takes on the road ahead: Romney must win Michigan.  Period.  Polls show him ahead of McCain, but narrowly, and McCain has the momentum. Clinton has a huge lead in Nevada, and has regained the upper hand in the Democratic race.  Overnight, the narrative has changed completely for the donkeys.  Huckabee has a large lead [...]

No Sure Things Yet

Obama’s momentum is undeniably real, and the wear is starting to show in the Hillary camp – and with Hillary herself.  The vote in New Hampshire seems a foregone conclusion – but it’s wrong to say that Hillary is out with a loss.  In fact, she still polls comfortably ahead in such delegate-rich states as [...]

And Then Came New Hampshire

Those looking to read the tea leaves for Tuesday’s New Hampshire vote are asking if the Iowa victories of Obama and Huckabee have wings.  In Obama’s case, the answer appears to be yes.  Obama is tied, trailing by one, or leading by as much as 12 in every major poll in New Hampshire taken after [...]

Huckabee Wins, Dems Still In Doubt

It couldn’t be closer on the Democratic side, but Huckabee is going to win Iowa going away on the Republican side (that’s one prediction I missed – the other, that Fred Thompson would not finish third, is still in doubt, though Thompson is holding on to third by a thin margin at the moment)…more later… [...]

Iowa Predictions

What the hey…with polls showing both parties completely up for grabs in Iowa, I’ll put my two cents in with predictions. Republicans:  Mitt Romney Democrats: Hillary Clinton Second will go to Huckabee and Edwards, respectively.  Big losers on the day will be Obama, with a tough-to-swallow third, and Fred Thompson, who will begin the slink [...]

One Week From Iowa

Back in business after an extended Christmas break (among my gifts – an HD DVD player with the 5-disc Blade Runner collection – how cool is that?).  Hard to believe, but Iowa is a scant seven days away now. On the Republican side, the real suspense is two-fold – can Romney hold off a late-charging [...]

The End Of Rudy?

You can’t swing a cat without hitting a Rudy free-fall story, but Jim Geraghty says “Not so fast”: …Rudy will remain in okay shape until it’s a two man race, and that for him to win the nomination, he needs the last remaining Not Rudy candidate to be too bruised to triumph. Iowa, for now, [...]

I’m Not Endorsing Any Candidate…

…much as that will disappoint the campaign managers who were salivating over the coveted ‘D’08′ demographic (not to be confused with the coveted Homer Simpson ‘D’oh!’ demographic).  For lots of reasons, I think it’s much cleaner for an independent blogger to stay out of that game. Nevertheless, I have made it plain to all my [...]

Same As It Ever Was?

With all the excitement over the rise of Huckabee and Obama, the latest USA Today/Gallup numbers seem like a blast from the past, with Rudy and Clinton actually increasing their front-runner status over the prior polling period: Republicans. It’s Rudy Giuliani still in the lead — and a quartet of rivals all within striking range. [...]

Is The Smart Money Smart? (And Is There Enough of It?)

There is much debate over whether such political trading vehicles as Intrade have enough volume to constitute an accurate source of predictions, but for what it’s worth, the money is still on Hillary and Giuliani, surging Obamas and Huckabees notwithstanding (the Iowa Electronic Market, which has nothing to do with the Iowa primaries, has it [...]

The Huckabee Surge

Foreign policy has been much more exciting than political campaigns lately, so I’ve been pretty light on the ostensible purpose of this blog.  However, I would be negligent in my duties if I failed to note that while Giuliani has been struggling under the cloud of ‘scandal’, Mike Huckabee has been skyrocketing.  Those looking for proof needn’t [...]